The tendency to use a probabilistic design method rather than a deterministic design method for the design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) will increase because their safety should be considered and strictly controlled in relation to various causes of damage. The distance between a seismically isolated NPP structure and a moat wall is called the clearance to stop. The clearance to stop is obtained from the 90th percentile displacement response of a seismically isolated NPP subject to a beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) in the probabilistic design method. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of heating and buckling effects on the 90th percentile displacement response of a lead-rubber bearing (LRB) subject to a BDBE. The analysis results show that considering the heating and buckling effects to estimate the clearance to stop is conservative in the evaluation of the 90th percentile displacement response. If these two effects are not taken into account in the calculation of the clearance to stop, the underestimation of the clearance to stop causes unexpected damage because of an increase in the collision probability between the moat wall and the seismically isolated NPP.

ABSTRACT
1. 서 론
2. 납-고무 면진장치의 모델링 및 입력지진
    2.1 납-고무 면진장치의 특성을 이용한 면진 개념
    2.2 입력 지진
    2.3 납-고무 면진장치(LRB)의 물성치
    2.4 납-고무 면진장치의 상세해석을 위한 수치모델
3. 납-고무 면진장치의 변위응답에 대한 확률론적 분석
    3.1 면진장치의 비탄성 변위응답에 대한 납심 온도상승효과 영향분석
    3.2 면진장치의 좌굴효과에 의한 변위응답의 영향분석
    3.3 온도상승효과 및 좌굴효과의 동시 고려시 변위응답의 영향
4. 결 론
REFERENCES

• 윤수정(강원대학교 건축·토목·환경공학부 토목공학과) | Yun Su-Jeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
• 홍지영(강원대학교 건축·토목·환경공학부 토목공학과) | Hong Ji-Yeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
• 문지호(강원대학교 건축·토목·환경공학부 토목공학과) | Moon Jiho (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
• 송종걸(강원대학교 건축·토목·환경공학부 토목공학과) | Song Jong-Keol (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University) Corresponding author