In this study, based on the System Dynamics (SD) methodology, the interrelationship between the factors inherent in the operation of the New Technology Certification System (NTCS) in Korea was identified by a causal map containing a feedback loop mechanism in connection with ‘new technology development investment’, ‘commercialization of new technology’, and ‘sales by new technology’. This conceptualized causal map was applied to the simulation of the operations of the New Excellent Technology and Environmental Technology Verification System (NET&ETV) run by the Ministry of Environment among various NTCSs in Korea. A SD computer simulation model was developed to analyze and predict the operational performance of the NET&ETV in terms of key performance indices such as ‘sales by new technology’. Using this model, we predicted the future operational status the NET&ETV and found a policy leverage that greatly influences the operation of the NET&ETV. Also the sensitivity of the key indicators to changes in the external variables in the model was analyzed to find policy leverage.

ABSTRACT
1. 서 론
2. 시스템다이내믹스 모델링 기법
3. 신기술인증제도의 운영에 내재된 피드백루프 메커니즘
4. 환경신기술인증 및 기술검증제도의 효과 분석을 위한 SD 모델
    4.1 피드백루프 메커니즘 및 SD 모델의 개요
    4.2 개발된 SD 컴퓨터 모형의 검증과 주요지표 예측
5. 민감도 분석 및 정책지렛대의 발견
6. 결 론
References

• 김태영(부산대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) | Taeyoung Kim (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University)
• 박수완(부산대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) | Suwan Park (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University) Corresponding author