Sea trial tests are necessary to verify speed-power performance, and are an import contract between ship owners and shipyards. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) published ISO 15016:2015, which specifies the correlation method between model and full-scale ships. The results of sea trials have been questioned because of the uncertainty of speed and power measurements, especially when sea conditions differ from ideal calm water conditions. In this paper, such uncertainties were investigated by utilizing the standard speed-power trial analysis procedure defined in ISO 15016:2015 through Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that the expanded uncertainty of the delivered power (PDid) at 95 % confidence interval (k = 2) was ±1.5 % under 75 % MCR conditions.

Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Uncertainty Analysis
3. Speed-Power Uncertainty
    3.1 Sea trial results
    3.2 Speed-power uncertainty factor
4. Shaft Power Uncertainty
5. Added Resistance Uncertainty Analysis
    5.1 Uncertainty of added resistance due to wind
    5.2 Uncertainty of added resistance due to waves
    5.3 Uncertainty of water temperature & density
6. Uncertainty of the Delivered Power
7. Conclusion
References

• Dae-Won Seo(Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Kunsan National University)
• Jackyou Noh(Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Kunsan National University) Corresponding Author