논문 상세보기
pp.347-360
In this study, the Bayesian state-space model was used for the stock assessment of the Blackfin flounder. In addition, effective measures for the resource management were presentedwith the analysis on the effectiveness of fisheries management plans. According to the result of the analysis using the Bayesian state-space model, the main biometric value of Blackfin flounder was analyzed as 1,985 tons for maximum sustainable yield (MSY), 23,930 tons for carrying capacity (K), 0.000007765 for catchability coefficient (q) and 0.31 for intrinsic growth (r). Also the evaluation on the biological effect of TAC was done. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be kept at 14,637 tons 20 years later given the present TAC volume of 1,761 tons. If the Blackfin flounder TAC volume is set to 1,600 tons, the amount of biomass will increase to 16,252 tons in the future. Lastly, the biological effectiveness of the policy to reduce fishing effort was assessed. The result showed that the Blackfin flounder biomass will be maintained at 13,776 tons if the current fishing efforts (currently hp) level is set and maintained. If the fishing effort is reduced by 20%, it will increase to 17,091 tons in the future. The analysis on the economic effect of TAC showed that NPV will be the lowest at 1,486,410 won in 2038, 20 years after the establishment of 2,500 tons of TAC volume. If the TAC volume is set at 2,000 tons, NPV was estimated to be the highest at 2,206,522,000 won. In addition, the analysis on the economic effect of the policy to reduce the amount of fishing effort found that NPV will be 2,235,592,000 won in 2038, 20 years after maintaining the current level of fishing effort. If the fishing effort is increased by 10%, NPV will be the highest at 2,257,575 won even thoughthe amount of biomass will be reduced.
재료 및 방법
기름가자미 어업현황
분석 자료
분석 방법
결 과
기름가자미 어획량을 역 추정한 분석결과
Bayesian State-space 모델 분석결과
기름가자미 어업관리방안에 대한 효과분석
시장가격 변화에 따른 민감도 분석결과
어업비용변화에 따른 민감도 분석
결 론
References
