PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to derive implications by comparing overseas and domestic cases on the management of demand forecast risks in public-private partnerships (PPP) projects.
METHODS : Demand forecast risk management measures of PPP were classified into three categories: Expected project IRR, Minimum income guarantee, and LPVR mechanism. According to the classification method, the overseas demand risk sharing method was introduced. The risk methods of demand risk for PPP projects in Korea were classified and compared with that of overseas cases.
RESULTS : 1. The domestic PPP was developed from the perspective of investors rather than overseas. 2. The risk-sharing model was not considered during the bidding process. 3. The models for the demand forecasting errors were not diverse.
CONCLUSIONS : The domestic BTO project includes several risk factors, among which the burden on demand forecast risks is critical. Future studies will be required to quantitatively evaluate risk factors in PPP projects and properly share the risks between the government and the private sector.

ABSTRACT
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 교통수요예측 오차와 관련한 기존 문헌 고찰
    2.1. 관련 연구
    2.2. 교통수요예측 오차 사례
3. 해외 민간투자사업의 수요 위험 관리
    3.1. Approach 1: 프로젝트 기대수익률(expectedproject IRR)
    3.2. Approach 2: MIG(Minimum Income Guarantee)
    3.3. Approach 3: LPVR 모델(The LPVR mechanism)
4. 국내 교통량 예측 오차에 따른 위험 분담 정책
    4.1. MRG제도(1999~2009)
    4.2. 투자위험의 분담제도(2009~2014)
    4.3. 투자위험분담형 도입(2015~)
    4.4. 혼합형(BTO+BTL) 방식 도입(2020~)
    4.5. 국내 위험분담 정책 현황
5. 결론 및 정책 시사점 도출
REFERENCES

• 구석모(한국개발연구원 공공투자관리센터) | Ku Sukmo
• 권혁(충북대학교 도시공학과/한국교통연구원 전문분석원) | Kwon Hyug 교신저자