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지역기후모델들로 모의된 기온자료를 활용한 남한지역의 21세기 중반 기온변화 전망 KCI 등재
Projection of Temperature Changes for the Mid 21st Century Using Simulated Temperature Data by Regional Climate Models over South Korea
pp.211-228
We projected the temperature changes in the mid-21st century with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 using the temperature data simulated by four regional climate models (RCMs: WRF, CCLM, MM5, RegCM4) in Korea. The simulation area and spatial resolution of RCMs were the CORDEXEA (COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia) area and 25 km, respectively. We defined the temperature change as the difference (ratio) between the average annual temperature (IAV: Interannual Variation) over the projected 25 years (2026-2050) and that over the present 25 years (1981-2005). The fact that the average annual temperature bias of the four RCMs is within ±2.5°C suggests that the RCM simulation level is reasonable in Korea. Across all RCMs, scenarios, and geographic locations, we observed increased temperatures (IAV) in the mid-21st century. In RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 1.27°C and 1.57°C will be increased by 2050, respectively. The ensemble suggests that the temperature increase is higher in winter (RCP4.5: 1.36°C, RCP8.5: 1.75°C) than summer (RCP4.5: 1.25°C, RCP8.5: 1.49°C). Central Korea exhibited a higher temperature increase than southern Korea. A slightly larger IAV is expected in the southeastern region than in the Midwest of Korea. IAV is also expected to increase significantly in RCP4.5 (summer) than in RCP8.5 (winter).
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 연구방법
1) 자료
2) 연구방법
3. 연구결과
1) 기온에 대한 모의수준
2) 연평균 기온의 변화
3) 여름 평균 기온의 변화
4. 요약 및 결론
References
