PURPOSES : This study aims to analyze the impact of demand risk on two public-private partnership (PPP) projects, namely BTO and BTO-a. The main aspects covered in this study are: i) identification of key risk issues considering the structure of PPP projects, and ii) game theory-oriented scenario building and simulation of demand risk allocation from participants’ perspectives.
METHODS : Using the institutional analysis and development (hereafter IAD) framework, a hypothetical structure is formulated to examine the interactions of demand risk. It develops a series of demand risk allocation models for PPP projects (i.e., BTO and BTO-a). The risk structures from the IAD step are the demand risk allocation issues. Using game theory-oriented simulation, this study evaluates demand risk based on scenario building.
RESULTS : First, this study highlights the imbalanced rate problems of returns between the BTO and BTO-a projects proposed by the market. This may lead to improvement measures geared towards problematic methods for determining the rate of return among domestic PPP projects. Second, compared with the BTO type, this study expects that the BTO-a type may exhibit more effectiveness, which can increase the probability of project success in both the public and private sectors. Third, judging from game-theory-oriented approaches, this study confirms the function of the BTO-a as a method to adjust moral hazard in the private sector.
CONCLUSIONS : Government management standards for BTO-a projects were derived based on the simulation results. It is necessary to select an appropriate project method based on rationality by balancing the IRR for each project method. Legal regulations should be applied separately to each part of the government guarantee. In addition, this study emphasizes that the introduction of ex-post value-for-money (VFM) analysis is essential for the efficient management of government expenses.

ABSTRACT
1. 서론
2. 기존연구 고찰
    2.1. 해외 민간투자사업 제도
    2.2. 수요위험 배분 관련 연구
3. 모형의 설계
    3.1. 수요위험의 쟁점 분석
    3.2. 게임구성
4. 모형 개발
    4.1. 보수함수 개발
    4.2. 게임 모형
5. 모형 실험
    5.1. 모형 시뮬레이션
    5.2. 모형 시뮬레이션 평가
6. 결론
    6.1. 연구 결과
    6.2. 연구의 한계 및 향후 과제
REFERENCES

• 권혁(한국교통연구원 부전문위원) | Kwon Hyug
• 이정민(청주시청 주무관) | Lee Jung-Min
• 이만형(충북대학교 도시공학과 명예교수) | Lee Man-Hyung Corresponding author