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A Study on Illegal Transfer Paths of North Korea’s Strategic Items
In the previous study, the types of North Korea’s strategic items, foreign trading partners, and export items were investigated. From North Korea’s typical trade paths, it is possible to predict the paths through which North Korea’s strategic items are illegally exported upon denuclearization. Trading partners of North Korea are the potential importing countries or end-users of strategic items, which can be disguised or concealed as if it is general export items during typical export procedures. So, in this study, transfer paths of North Korea’s export items are examined by utilizing KOTRA statistics, including item type HS code and its total price. Also, AnyLogic, a comprehensive simulation modeling tool, the simulation will be conducted to identify the paths for illegal transfer and calculate the time required. The information on North Korea’s trading partners and items is used for establishing export scenarios in which strategic items are transferred to other countries through North Korea’s ports, airports, railroads, and roads. To be specific, China, Russia, and South Korea, countries that share a border with North Korea, export items transported only by land; the items will arrive first in the referred three countries. Since the types of items, North Korea transacts with each country are different, the total amount and frequency of transactions are different; the probability of strategic items being included in general export items and transferred during customs clearance also varies. Even if it does not border North Korea, North Korea can export items through ports to countries adjacent to the coastline, and North Korea can even export items to any country by airspace even if it is not adjacent to the coastline. So, all publicly open ports, airports, railways, and roads are surveyed. Their geographic information, such as EPSG 4326 and EPSG 3857 coordinate system, are applied to confirm and visualize valid export paths starting from North Korea. In conclusion, effective export paths in North Korea are identified based on North Korea’s each major transportation hub by using AnyLogic simulation. It is possible to predict the paths through which North Korea’s strategic items will be transferred by combining information on major export items and countries that North Korea mainly transacts with.
