The Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control (KINAC) is developing a simulation model to estimate nuclear material production. This model is a foundational technology in interpretation and evaluation in preparation for denuclearization verification. Through this model, it is possible to estimate the amount of nuclear material that can be produced based on information on the activities of facilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in the actual denuclearization verification stage. This model makes it possible to determine whether the declared amount of nuclear material is reliable. In addition, the reliability of the reported information can be confirmed through on-site inspection. However, there is a possibility that proliferation-related activities cannot be detected even through this inspection, and a normal state may be misdiagnosed as carrying out nuclear proliferation-related activities. Therefore, it is unreasonable to specify activities related to nuclear proliferation with only one inspection. Since each inspection method has its diagnosis rate and false diagnosis rate, measures such as repeating the same inspection method or combining different inspection methods are required to detect activities related to nuclear proliferation reliably. Therefore, a model capable of estimating the number of repetitions to obtain a reliable nuclear activity detection probability was developed by using each inspection method’s diagnosis rate and false diagnosis rate as input information through a Bayesian inference method. Through this model, it can be concluded that repetitive inspections increase the probability of detecting nuclear proliferation-related activities. This approach confirmed the possibility of repeatedly breaking away from the high-intensity inspection method that causes political and diplomatic resistance from the target country and substituting it with a more readily acceptable, low-intensity inspection method.

• Yonhong Jeong(Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control (KINAC)) Corresponding author
• Dongjin Kim(Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control (KINAC))
• Hojung Do(Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control (KINAC))