PURPOSES : High temperatures induce excessive expansion in pavements, thus causing the closure of contraction joints between expansion joints. This results in the integration of slabs within the expansion joints into a unified slab. Compressive forces are generated owing to the friction that ensues between the unified slab and lower base layer. As the integrated slab expands and exceeds the allowable width of the expansion joint, the end restraint generates an additional compressive force. The escalating force, which reaches a critical threshold, induces buckling, thus compromising stability and causing blow-up incidents, which poses a significant hazard to road users. The unpredictable nature of blow-up incidents render their accurate prediction challenging because the compressive force within the slab must be predicted and the threshold for blow-up occurrence must be determined. METHODS : In this study, a GWNU blow-up model was developed to predict both the compressive force and period of blow-up incidents in jointed concrete pavements. The climate conditions, pavement structure, materials, and expansion joints were considered in this model. In the first stage of the model, the time at which the integrated slab expanded and surpassed the allowable width of the expansion joint was determined, and the compressive force was calculated. Subsequently, the compressive force within the integrated slab, considering both the end restraints and friction, was predicted. A large-scale blow-up test was performed to measure the blow-up force based on changes in the geometric imperfections. The measured blow-up force was adopted as the blow-up occurrence threshold, and the point at which the predicted compressive force within the slab exceeded the blow-up force was identified as the blow-up occurrence time. RESULTS : Using the GWNU blow-up model, the blow-up occurrence on the Seohean Expressway in Korea is predicted in the presence or absence of the alkali-silica reaction (ASR). Analysis is conducted using the expansion joint spacing and width as variables. As the expansion joint spacing increases, blow-up occurs sooner, and as the width increases, only the expansion joint life decreases. When applying an expansion joint spacing of 300 m and a width of 100 mm under an ASR with 99.9% TTPG reliability, the sum of the expansion joint life and blow-up occurrence time is 16 years. CONCLUSIONS : In the case of jointed concrete pavements where ASR occurred, installing an expansion joint spacing of 300 m and a width of 100 mm does not satisfy the design life of 20 years, and the expansion joint width minimally affect the blow-up occurrence time. To prevent blow-up incidents, a spacing of less than 300 m for the expansion joint is recommended. Based on the analysis results, the blow-up occurrence time and location can be predicted from the characteristics of the installed expansion joint, through which blow-up incidents can be prevented via preliminary maintenance.