It would be advantageous to grow legume forage crops in order to increase the productivity and sustainability of sloped croplands in Hamkyongbukdo. In particular, the identification of potential cultivation areas for alfalfa in the given region could aid decision-making on policies and management related to forage crop production in the future. This study aimed to analyze the climate suitability of alfalfa in Hamkyongbukdo under current and future climate conditions using the Fuzzy Union model. The climate suitability predicted by the Fuzzy Union model was compared with the actual alfalfa cultivation area in the northern United States. Climate data obtained from 11 global climate models were used as input data for calculation of climate suitability in the study region to examine the uncertainty of projections under future climate conditions. The area where the climate suitability index was greater than a threshold value (22.6) explained about 44% of the variation in actual alfalfa cultivation areas by state in the northern United States. The climatic suitability of alfalfa was projected to decrease in most areas of Hamkyongbukdo under future climate scenarios. The climatic suitability in Onseong and Gyeongwon County was analyzed to be over 88 in the current climate conditions. However, it was projected to decrease by about 66% in the given areas by the 2090s. Our study illustrated that the impact of climate change on suitable cultivation areas was highly variable when different climate data were used as inputs to the Fuzzy Union model. Still, the ensemble of the climate suitability projections for alfalfa was projected to decrease considerably due to summer depression in Hamkyongbukdo. It would be advantageous to predict suitable cultivation areas by adding soil conditions or to predict the climate suitability of other leguminous crops such as hairy vetch, which merits further studies.

Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 재료 및 방법
    1. 연구 대상 지역
    2. 기후적합도 분석 대상 작물
    3. 기후적합도 모형
    4. 모형 입력 자료
    5. 재배 적합지 판정 임계값 설정
    6. 기후적합도와 재배면적 비교
    7. 앙상블 기후적합도 전망
    8. 행정구역별 기후적합도 예측
Ⅲ. 결과
    1. 기후적합도의 임계점 설정
    2. 미국 북부 지역에서의 기후적합도 분석
    3. 함경북도에서의 기후모형별 기후적합도 분석
    4. 미래 기후조건에서의 앙상블 기후적합도 분석
Ⅳ. 고찰
Ⅴ. 요약
Ⅵ. 사사
Ⅶ. REFERENCES

• 현승민(서울대학교 농림생물자원학부) | Hyun Seung Min (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, Seoul National University)
• 현신우(서울대학교 농림생물자원학부) | Hyun Shinwoo (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, Seoul National University)
• 김광수(서울대학교 농림생물자원학부, 서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원) | Kim Kwang Soo (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, Seoul National University, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) Corresponding author