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A Comparative Study of Multivariate Forecasting Models for Container Throughput

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  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/435412
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국제이네비해양경제학회 (International Association of e-Navigation and Ocean Economy)
초록

Forecasting port container throughput is crucial due to its impact on economic development. Socio-economic factors, which introduce uncertainty, are increasingly integrated into throughput forecasting. The complexity of common multivariate forecasting models significantly affects accuracy, yet few studies compare their performance on the same time series for throughput modeling. This study implements, evaluates, and compares the performance of eight multivariate forecasting models for port throughput within a proposed multiple-input single-output (MISO) system, chosen for their frequent use in container throughput research. It investigates two data preprocessing approaches: Random Forest Variable Importance Method (RF-VIM) and a Multi Lagged Value approach. The comparison uses six error metrics: normalized root mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, mean error, and root mean percentage error. Performances are discussed, and recommendations for adopting a suitable model are provided.

목차
1. Introduction
2. Literature
3. Methodology
4. Results and Discussion
5. Conclusions
References
저자
  • Awah, P. C.(Department of Maritime Transportation, Mokpo National Maritime University, Mokpo, Korea)
  • Mabika, C. A.(Department of International Trade, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, Korea)
  • Hwayoung Kim(Division of Maritime Transportation, Mokpo National Maritime University, Mokpo, Korea) Corresponding author