This study aims to estimate the scope of damage impact with a real-life explosion case and a damage prediction program (ALOHA) and suggest measures to reduce risk by comparing and analyzing the results using a Probit model. After applying it to the ALOHA program, the toxicity, overpressure, and radiant heat damage of 5 tons of storage scopes between 66 to 413 meters, and the real-life case also demonstrated that most of the damage took place within 300 meters of the LPG gas station. In the Probit analysis, the damages due to radiant heat were estimated as first-degree burns (13-50%), while structural damage (0-75%) and glass window breakage (94-100%) were expected from overpressure, depending on the storage volume. After comparing the real-life case and the damage prediction program, this study concluded that the ALOHA program could be used as the scope of damage impacts is nearly the same as the actual case; it also concluded that the analysis using the Probit model could reduce risks by applying calculated results and predicting the probability of human casualties and structural damages.

Abstract
1. 서 론
2. LPG충전소의 주변지역 현황 및 운송차량 종류
3. 실험모델
4. LPG충전소 폭발 사고사례
    4.1 국내
    4.2 해외
5. ALOHA 프로그램 및 프로빗 분석법의활용
    5.1 ALOHA
    5.2 Probit 모델 분석법을 활용한 인명피해및 구조물 손상의 피해산정
6. LPG충전소 폭발의 실제 피해분석
7. 실제 폭발사례 및 피해예측 프로그램의비교 분석
    7.1 ALOHA 프로그램과 비교분석
    7.2 Probit 분석법과 비교분석
8. 결 론
9. References
저자 소개

• 양용호(우석대학교 일반대학원 소방방재학과 박사과정) | Yongho Yang (Graduate Student, Dept. of Fire & Disaster Prevention, Woosuk University)
• 김순주(우석대학교 일반대학원 소방안전공학과 박사과정) | Soonju Kim (Graduate Student, Dept. of Fire & Safety Engineering, Woosuk University)
• 공하성(우석대학교 소방방재학과 교수) | Hasung Kong (Professor, Fire and Disaster Prevention, Woosuk University) Corresponding author