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이동통신 데이터 기반 교통량 추정값의 신뢰도 검증 방안 KCI 등재

Reliability Evaluation for Traffic Volume Estimates Based on Location Intelligence Data

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한국도로학회논문집 (International journal of highway engineering)
한국도로학회 (Korean Society of Road Engineers)
초록

PURPOSES : The reliability of traffic volume estimates based on location intelligence data (LID) is evaluated using various statistical techniques. There are several methods for determining statistical significance or relationships between different database sets. We propose a method that best represents the statistical difference between actual LID-based traffic volume estimates and the VDS values (i.e., true values) for the same road segment. METHODS : A total of 2,496 datasets aggregated for 1-h LID and VDS data were subjected to various statistical analyses to evaluate the consistency of the two datasets. The VDS data were defined as the true values for comparison. Four different statistical techniques (procrutes, 2-sample t-test, paired-sample t-test, and model performance rating scale) were applied. RESULTS : In cases where there is a specific pattern (e.g., traffic volume distribution considering peak and off-peak times), distribution tests such as Procrustes or Kolmogorov-Smirnov are useful because not only the prediction accuracy but also the similarity of the data distribution shape is important. CONCLUSIONS : The findings of this study provide important insight into the reliability of LID-based traffic volume estimation. To evaluate the reliability between the two groups, a paired-sample t-test was considered more appropriate than the performance evaluation measure of the machine-learning model. However, it is important to set the acceptance criteria necessary to statistically determine whether the difference between the two groups in the paired-sample t-test varies according to the given problem.

목차
ABSTRACT
1. 서론
2. 연구 동향
    2.1. LID 기반 교통량 추정 신뢰성 평가 고찰
    2.2. 신뢰성 평가 기법 고찰
3. 데이터 구축 및 분석
    3.1. 데이터 수집 및 교통량 추정
4. 추정교통량의 신뢰성 평가
5. 결론
감사의 글
REFERENCES
저자
  • 문재필(한국건설기술연구원 도로교통연구본부 수석연구원) | Moon Jaepil
  • 김진국(한국건설기술연구원 도로교통연구본부 전임연구원) | Kim Jinguk
  • 양충헌(한국건설기술연구원 도로교통연구본부 연구위원) | Yang Choongheon Corresponding author
  • 송성욱(㈜엠큐닉 전략사업본부 이사) | Song Seongwook
  • 홍경보(국토교통부 원주지방국토관리청 교통안전팀 팀장) | Hong Kyungbo