Blow-up in jointed concrete pavements refers to a type of distress caused by the excessive accumulation of compressive stress within concrete slabs, primarily resulting from internal expansion and elevated environmental temperatures. This phenomenon frequently leads to slab buckling and is challenging to predict in terms of both timing and location, thereby significantly threatening the long-term structural stability of the pavement. In the present study, the pavement growth and blow-up analysis (PGBA) model was employed to quantitatively predict the timing of blow-up events in jointed concrete pavements. The model estimates the maximum compressive stress within the slab throughout the pavement’s service life using input parameters such as reliability, climatic conditions, pavement structure, material properties, and expansion joint configurations. Subsequently, the model compares the estimated stress to the threshold stress associated with blow-up to determine the likely time of occurrence. A sensitivity analysis was performed on a range of design and environmental factors, including annual maximum temperature, annual maximum precipitation, coefficient of thermal expansion, ASR, pavement thickness, geometric imperfection, and expansion joint spacing and width. The influence of each factor on the predicted blow-up occurrence time was quantitatively evaluated. The analysis demonstrated that climatic conditions, pavement structure, material properties, and expansion joint characteristics, as considered in the PGBA model, collectively govern the timing of blow-up events. These findings offer critical insights for informing the design and maintenance strategies of jointed concrete pavements.