논문 상세보기
This study establishes a structured development procedure for a non-ergodic ground motion model (GMM) and applies it to Korean seismic records to evaluate uncertainty reduction. The proposed framework includes data screening based on signal-to-noise ratio, residual computation relative to NGA-East predictions, identification of systematic trends, and stepwise correction of site, magnitude, and distance effects. A total of 368 records from 16 earthquakes (Mw ≥ 4.0) observed at 53 stations were analyzed. The residuals exhibited clear VS30-dependent trends, particularly at short periods (–0.2 s). Period-dependent VS₃₀ correction terms were derived through linear regression, with additional corrections for magnitude and distance applied when sufficient data were available. Spectral comparisons for the 2016 Gyeongju and 2017 Pohang earthquakes demonstrated improved agreement after calibration. The stepwise corrections resulted in a consistent reduction of total standard deviation across periods, with the largest decrease observed near 0.1 s. These results indicate that the proposed development procedure provides a practical pathway for transitioning from ergodic to partially non-ergodic modeling and effectively reduces aleatory uncertainty for Korean seismic hazard applications.
1. 서 론
2. Non-ergodic GMM 개발 절차
2.1 관측 데이터 및 부지 정보 수집
2.2 기존 ergodic GMM 기반 예측값과 관측값의 잔차 계산
2.3 잔차 분석 및 non-ergodic항 도입
2.4 Aleatory uncertainty 정량화
2.5 Epistemic uncertainty 정량화
3. 국내 지진 관측 자료 및 분석 데이터
4. NGA-East 기반 잔차 보정
4.1 NGA-East 예측 스펙트럼과 관측 응답스펙트럼 비교
4.2 VS30 보정
4.3 규모 및 거리 보정
4.4 보정항이 적용된 NGA-East 모델의 불확실성 감소효과
4.5 방법론적 한계 및 향후 개선 방향
5. 결 론
/ 감사의 글 /
/ REFERENCES /
/ APPENDIX /
