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Forecasting Pangasius Export Volumes in the Mekong Delta for the Period 2026 - 2035
- 언어ENG
- URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/451739
pp.1-9
This study forecasts pangasius export volumes in the Mekong Delta for the period 2026-2035 to provide a basis for planning and developing the logistics service chain. Based on quarterly time series data from 2014 to 2025, a time series linear regression model is first employed to establish the underlying growth trend; however, it fails to capture the seasonal characteristics of the data. Therefore, the Holt-Winters model is applied to simultaneously account for both trend and seasonality, indicating that export volumes may reach approximately 938 thousand tons by 2035. Nevertheless, this approach is limited in long-term forecasting due to its assumption of structural continuity from the past. To address this limitation, the study incorporates an uncertainty forecasting approach based on Uncertainty Theory, integrating expert judgment to reflect the potential range of market fluctuations. The results suggest that the expected export volume in 2035 is approximately 917 thousand tons. The study contributes by proposing an integrated approach combining statistical models and uncertainty-based methods, providing a reference for the development of logistics service systems supporting pangasius exports in the Mekong Delta.
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Literature Review on Time Series Forecasting
2.2. Research Methodology
3. Research Results and Discussion
3.1. Analysis of Input Data
3.2. Forecasting Results Based on the Time Series Regression Model
3.3. Forecasting Results Based on the Holt-Winters Model
4. Discussion and Implications for the Development of the Logistics Service Chain
4.1. Cold Chain Logistics Infrastructure
4.2. Logistics centers for seafood exports
4.3. Supply chain management
5. Conclusion
References
