Amid increasing economic damages from climate change and geopolitical risks, this study examines the dynamic relationships between changes in fisheries conditions and offshore angling fishery enterprises employing an autoregressive distributed lag model with time-series data from 1989 to 2024. The empirical results indicate that increases in sea surface temperature, vessel horsepower, and crude oil prices are negatively associated with catch in the long run, while temporary positive associations with catch are observed in the short run. In addition, dynamic simulations assuming positive shocks to sea surface temperature and crude oil prices suggest a long-run decline in catch following each shock. Based on these findings, this study proposes several policy implications. First, to ensure the sustainability of fishery enterprises, stock assessment methods should be enhanced to account for potential declines in fishery resources due to climate change. Second, a vessel modernization fund involving private financial institutions is needed to promote the replacement of vessels with improved energy efficiency. Third, revising the tax-free petroleum scheme is required to allow unused fuel allocated to each vessel to be accumulated as reserves. Finally, discussions on setting an upper limit on vessel horsepower are warranted, given its significant influence on fishing intensity.

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서 론
Ⅱ. 분석 자료 및 모형
    1. 분석 자료
    2. ARDL 모형
Ⅲ. 분석 결과
    1. ARDL 모형 추정 결과
    2. ARDL 모형 안정성 및 강건성 검정 결과
    3. ARDL 모형에 기반한 동태적 시뮬레이션 결과
Ⅳ. 결 론
REFERENCES

• 전용한(한국해양수산개발원 수산연구본부 전문연구원) | Yong-Han Jeon (Senior Researcher, Fisheries Policy Research Department, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan, 49111, Rep. of Korea)
• 김주현(한국해양수산개발원 해양연구본부 부연구위원) | Ju-Hyeoun Kim (Associate Research Fellow, Marine Policy Research Department, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan, 49111, Rep. of Korea) Corresponding author