Prioritizing candidate OECMs in Korea requires an ex ante framework that compares institutional constraints across candidate types while mitigating data deficiency and selection bias before site-level assessments are finalized. This study groups nationally discussed candidates into 17 candidate types and represents OECM suitability through five latent axes bounded between 0 and 1: non-protected area status (nonPA), boundary clarity (boundary), governance stability (governance), long-term durability (longterm), and biodiversity outcomes (biodiv). Axis scores are modeled with Beta priors whose means and uncertainties are elicited via transparent, rule-based flags extracted from structured textual descriptions, thereby preserving traceability of how assumptions shift each axis. Joint dependence among axes is introduced using a copula, and an additional directional mechanism links governance to long-term durability to reflect the institutional premise that durable outcomes are underpinned by stable authority, responsibility, and coordination capacity. Decisions are evaluated with a two-stage rule consisting of a minimum-threshold gate across all axes and a weighted composite score applied to gate-passing samples. Complementary analyses examine single-axis mean-shift interventions, rank stability under alternative weight interpretations, and expected utility combining registration likelihood with effective area. Results indicate that feasibility is shaped less by average levels than by bottlenecks generated by simultaneous minimum requirements. Recurrent bottlenecks concentrate in boundary documentation and spatial attribution, outcome-evidence systems, and the justification for reporting units distinct from protected areas. The analysis further reveals a structural separation between types that are relatively easy to register and types that yield larger expected gains once registered, supporting a staged policy portfolio that couples near-term standard-setting through readily registrable types with medium-to-long-term investment in high-impact types. Across most types, governance strengthening emerges as the most consistent leverage for increasing final pass probabilities, suggesting that improvements in durability and overall feasibility are more efficiently achieved through institutional alignment than through isolated, single-axis adjustments.

Abstract
서 론
재료 및 방 법
    1. 연구 대상, 분석 단위, 입력 자료
    2. OECM 평가 축 (axes)과 확률모형 (prior model)
    3. 축 간 상관·종속 구조 및 시뮬레이션 절차
    4. 판정 규칙, 성과지표, 병목·개입·민감도·효용 분석
결 과
    1. 후보 유형별 기준 통과확률과 기대효용
    2. 병목 축 분해와 개입 지렛대
    3. 가중치 민감도와 순위 변동성
고 찰
    1. 한국 OECM 후보지의 ‘등록 가능성’과 ‘성과 규모’의구조적 분리
    2. 최소요건 동시충족 구조가 드러낸 공통 취약축과문서화 기준
    3. OECM 제도 성과에서 거버넌스 역량의 구조적 중요성
    4. 기준 해석의 견고성, 중간권의 불확실성, 한계
결 론
적 요
REFERENCES

• 도윤호(국립공주대학교 생명과학과) | Yuno Do (Department of Biological Sciences, Kongju National University, Gongju 32588, Republic of Korea) Corresponding author
• 박웅배(국립공주대학교 생명과학과) | Woong-Bae Park (Department of Biological Sciences, Kongju National University, Gongju 32588, Republic of Korea)