사고예측모형은 도로에서 발생한 교통사고자료를 통계적으로 모형화한 것으로 종속변수는 과거의 사고건수가 되고 설명 변수로는 주로 사고가 일어난 장소의 도로 기하구조 조건, 교통조건, 운영조건 등 도료의 속성자료가 이용된다. 기존의 사고예측모형의 한계를 극복하고자 새로운 방안인 Hauer의 연구를 구체적으로 소개하고 이를 국내 고속도로 사망사고자료를 통해 적용하였다. Hauer의 방법론에 의한 사고예측모형을 구축한 결과 AADT와 종단구배를 통해 사고예측모형의 적합도를 상당히 높일 수 있었으나, 곡선반경은 사고건수와 직접적 인 관련이 있는 것으로 파악되지 않았다. 이러한 사고예측모형은 기존의 모형과 비교 시 여러 설명변수 중 어떤 변수가 모형에 도입되어야 하는지를 결정할 때 분명한 근거를 지니기 때문에 중요한 변수가 누락되거나 혹은 중요하지 않는 변수가 도입될 가능성 이 낮아지는 장점을 지니고 있다.

The formation characteristics of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) were investigated in chlorination of raw water of different organic mallet characteristics. The samples used in this study were hydrophobic (N-HPO) and hydrophilic fraction (N-HPI) (which were concentrated and separated from Nakdong river water), and humic acid (HA) (which is known as a strong hydrophobic acid) as a reference organic matter, the specific UV absorbance (SUVA) of which was 2.19, 1.15 and 7.92, respectively. With increasing chlorine contact time, THMFP and HAAFP (the formation potential of THMs and HAAs) increased, but their increase was different depending on the organic mallet characteristics (i.e., for N-HPI, THMFP was higher than HAAFP, but the inverse result was obtained for N-HPO and HA and the ratio between them was greater for HA), and the mainly formed chemical species were CHCI3 in case of THMs and dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) and trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) in case of HAAs for N-HPO and HA (and the ratios of CHCI3 to total THMs and DCAA and TCAA to total HAAs for HA were higher than those for N-HPO), but for N-HPI, the ratio of brominated THMs was a little higher than that of CHCI3 and the ratio of DCAA and TCAA to total HAAs was lower than that of N-HPO, although they are main chemical species in case of HAAs. Comparing THMFP and HAAFP with the increase in bromide concentration added with those in not adding it, the former increased greatly and its increase was higher for the organic mallet with stronger hydrophobicity, but the latter was lower for N-HPO and N-HPI and was similar for HA. The main chemical species with increasing bromide concentration were CHBt3 in case of THMs regardless of organic matter characteristics, and dibromoacetic acid (DBAA) for N-HPO and N-HPI, DBAA and tribromoacetic acid (TBAA) for HA in case of HAAs. With increasing reaction temperature and pH, THMFP and HAAFP increased for the former, but for the latter, THMFP increased and HAAFP decreased, although the rate of increase or decrease was different with organic mallet characteristics.