The variability of deflection for reinforced concrete flat plates is large because of the uncertainty of concrete. But there is the minimum thickness or maximum allowable deflection only in the current design criteria. That is based on experiential data and does not consider the variability. Thus, Deflection evaluation based on probabilistic method is needed. A parametric study has been conducted to verification of influence of several parameters. In order to predict the reasonable deflection of reinforced concrete flat plates, a layered degenerated shell element also was adopted for finite element analysis.