The Earth’s outer radiation belt often suffers from drastic changes in the electron fluxes. Since the electrons can be a potential threat to satellites, efforts have long been made to model and predict electron flux variations. In this paper, we describe a prediction model for the outer belt electrons that we have recently developed at Chungbuk National University. The model is based on a one-dimensional radial diffusion equation with observationally determined specifications of a few major ingredients in the following way. First, the boundary condition of the outer edge of the outer belt is specified by empirical functions that we determine using the THEMIS satellite observations of energetic electrons near the boundary. Second, the plasmapause locations are specified by empirical functions that we determine using the electron density data of THEMIS. Third, the model incorporates the local acceleration effect by chorus waves into the one-dimensional radial diffusion equation. We determine this chorus acceleration effect by first obtaining an empirical formula of chorus intensity as a function of drift shell parameter L*, incorporating it as a source term in the one-dimensional diffusion equation, and lastly calibrating the term to best agree with observations of a certain interval. We present a comparison of the model run results with and without the chorus acceleration effect, demonstrating that the chorus effect has been incorporated into the model to a reasonable degree.

Whistler mode chorus wave is considered to play a critical role in accelerating and precipitating the electrons in the outer radiation belt. In this paper we test a conventional scenario of triggering chorus using THEMIS satellite observations of waves and particles. Specifically, we test if the chorus onset is consistent with development of anisotropy in the electron phase space density (PSD). After analyzing electron PSD for 73 chorus events, we find that, for ~80 % of them, their onsets are indeed associated with development of the positive anisotropy in PSD where the pitch angle distribution of electron velocity peaks at 90 degrees. This PSD anisotropy is prominent mainly at the electron energy range of ≤ ~20 keV. Interestingly, we further find that there is sometimes a time delay among energies in the increases of the anisotropy: A development of the positive anisotropy occurs earlier by several minutes for lower energy than for an adjacent higher energy.