The positive and negative opinion to cargo demand of Incheon's SAMT in the near future remains cloudy. Considering port and shipping environmental changes and the logistics situation of China which explains the lack of facilities in Chinese airports, the creating of SAMT cargoes of the Incheon region could catches a favorable opportunity to be a logistics hub in the North-East Asia. On the other hand, as open-sky policy and direct-call service has been carried out between China and N.A.(North America), Incheon could cause a loss of competitiveness in SAMT because the enhancement in the aspect of the connectivity of Chinese airlines and shipping lines makes customer sent to last destination their cargoes whenever they want. In the same context, this paper analyses on conditions of domestic and international SAMT and proposes in this uncertainty future forecasting of SAMT of Incheon by scenario planning according to changes in integrated SAMT, measuring the likelihood of final scenario. This study shows the Sea & Air multi-transport volume will have either slight increase or decrease from the current condition. Consequently, RFS expansion and system & service improvement through strong ties with major cities in China will be required in a short run aspect. Nonetheless, we also need to take domestic & international transportation environment into account in the long run.

Recently, amount of cargoes from main ports in Northeast Asia have rapidly increased and as well surplus port development in same region corresponded with the boom in external trade that resulted from successful export-oriented economics strategy by China, Japan and South Korea. To cope with this business circumstances, a certain form of port alliance is desperately needed to provide a suitable service to customer and establish their countervailing power against the shipping alliance. Nevertheless, Incheon seaport has not made a definite port alliance system with main ports in Northern China yet. Thus, the purpose of this study is to identify the key success factors to form a port alliance through examining previous studies. We have benchmarked previous studies which are related to main ports in global region and the questionnaire on customers of ports. By studying this, we are able to suggest a few strategies for forming successful port alliance to enhance Incheon port's capabilities in the long term plan. As a policy proposal, this study suggests Incheon port and main ports in Northern China should construct a logistics infrastructure through mutual investment and provide an incentive system when the ocean carrier makes port call to both ports.