For safe and economical spent fuel management, assessing the integrity of the cladding, which is the first barrier to the escape of radioactive material, is very important. For the sake of risk assessment, it is essential to calculate the probability of failure of the spent fuel rods loaded inside the cask during the transportation or storage. However, due to the large amounts of calculations required, it is not practical to analyze every detail of the spent fuel rods and assemblies. This study presents a methodology to perform a cask-level analysis by sequentially simplifying the fuel rods and spent fuel assemblies for the calculation of fuel rod failure probability. A simplified single fuel rod model was generated by considering the material properties of a high burnup fuel rod stored in dry storage for approximately 5 years and the interfacial bonding conditions of the cladding tube. The simplified model produces the same deflection as the detailed model at the critical moment that produces a fracture plastic strain of 1%. The developed single fuel rod simplified model is assembled in a CE 16×16 configuration, and a methodology is presented in which the CE 16×16 assembly model is once again replaced by a simplified model with a cuboidal shape. Compression analyses were performed on each part of the CE 16×16 model to obtain isotropic property data, and a simplified model was created based on those data and the cross-sectional second moment values of the parts. A cask drop analysis was performed to validate the similarity of the CE 16×16 model and the simplified model by comparing important structural responses such as impact acceleration. The 20 simplified fuel assembly models and one detailed model were loaded into a cask to perform the drop analysis. For the detailed model, the impact acceleration was extracted for different loading positions and the corresponding impact load and pinch load were derived. The spring force and contact force corresponding to the pinch load were extracted by applying a Python script technique to extract the maximum value of them exerted on each fuel rod. The vulnerability of spent fuel rods to bending loads and the failure criteria were considered during the simplification process of a single fuel rod. From the extracted impact and pinch loads, the probability of failure of the spent fuel rods as a function of impact acceleration can be calculated.