Pinus densiflora is a fixed-growth coniferous species that elongates its shoot once a year and finishes growing in early summer. However, it may produce additional shoots in the same year in response to external stimuli, called abnormal shoot growth. This study investigated the effects of open-field summer warming and drought on the abnormal shoot growth of P. densiflora seedlings. In March 2022, two factorial combinations were constructed, including two temperature treatments (control and 4°C increase) and two precipitation treatments (control and drought), with five replicates for each combination. The temperature treatment was performed for 87 days from May 14 to August 8, 2022, and the precipitation treatment was performed for 33 days from May 14 to June 15, blocking 100% of the ambient rainfall. The abnormal shoot occurrence rate and leaf unfolding stages were measured in November, and the shoot and root collar diameter growth rates were calculated by comparing the seedling height and root collar diameter measured in August (after the cessation of treatment) and October (after the end of growing period) with the initial values (i.e., May 2022). The abnormal shoot occurrence rate significantly increased under the warming treatment, showing a 410.6% increase in the warming plots (38.4%) compared to the control plots (7.5%). There was no significant difference in the shoot and root collar diameter growth rate regarding warming and drought treatments. Abnormal shoots may have been affected by high temperatures by inducing early transition to the next ontogenetic stage.

This study is carried out in order to propose a drought risk assessment methodology. This methodology is required to deal with practical questions that a variety of stakeholder often raise in the course of discussions on mitigation measures. With a focus on the socioeconomic aspect of drought, more particularly, residents’ hardship from water scarcity, it suggests basic concepts and a system of methods in order to assess hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk. The case study shows a considerable possibility of the methodology in evaluating potential levels of damages in a certain area, in identifying the boundary of districts where risk is disproportionately concentrated, and also in understanding the underlying risk factors of those districts. The authors think that the proposed methodology is able to offer risk information in terms of socioeconomic damages, and therefore contribute to reducing information gaps that policy-makers are currently encountered with.