PURPOSES : This study aims to analyze the impact of demand risk on two public-private partnership (PPP) projects, namely BTO and BTO-a. The main aspects covered in this study are: i) identification of key risk issues considering the structure of PPP projects, and ii) game theory-oriented scenario building and simulation of demand risk allocation from participants’ perspectives. METHODS : Using the institutional analysis and development (hereafter IAD) framework, a hypothetical structure is formulated to examine the interactions of demand risk. It develops a series of demand risk allocation models for PPP projects (i.e., BTO and BTO-a). The risk structures from the IAD step are the demand risk allocation issues. Using game theory-oriented simulation, this study evaluates demand risk based on scenario building. RESULTS : First, this study highlights the imbalanced rate problems of returns between the BTO and BTO-a projects proposed by the market. This may lead to improvement measures geared towards problematic methods for determining the rate of return among domestic PPP projects. Second, compared with the BTO type, this study expects that the BTO-a type may exhibit more effectiveness, which can increase the probability of project success in both the public and private sectors. Third, judging from game-theory-oriented approaches, this study confirms the function of the BTO-a as a method to adjust moral hazard in the private sector. CONCLUSIONS : Government management standards for BTO-a projects were derived based on the simulation results. It is necessary to select an appropriate project method based on rationality by balancing the IRR for each project method. Legal regulations should be applied separately to each part of the government guarantee. In addition, this study emphasizes that the introduction of ex-post value-for-money (VFM) analysis is essential for the efficient management of government expenses.

이 논문은 동계작물 재배면적 배분 비율의 의사결정 요인과 그 영향을 파악하기 위한 재배면적 함수의 구축과 추정에 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 지난 30년 동안(1991~2021) 동계작물 생산 농가의 최적 면적 배분 과정에서 생산물 가격요인과 투입 요소 생산비 요인의 영향을 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 생산물 가격요인으로 작물의 자체 가격 상승은 재배면적을 증가시키고, 대체 작물의 가격 상승은 재배면적을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 투입 요소 생산비 요인은 작물에 따라 증감의 방향이 혼재되어 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 가격 및 투입 요소 비용 변화로 인한 과잉 과소 생산을 방지하고 수급 안정을 도모하기 위해서는 주산지 및 지역별 작목변화와 생산량 예측이 선행되어 수급 정책 수립 시 적극적으로 활용할 필요가 있다.

As economic trade between Korea and China has been encouraged with the rapid growth of Chinese economy and port competition in Northeast Asia, Korean government is trying to promote development and consolidation of ports to cope with the lack of facilities. Thus, many projects for port development have been propelled including the enactment the 'Private investment promotion law for social overhead capital 1994.' However, there are still some unsettled issues since considerable part of risk is still allocated to the Government when it has to support the private businesses in these port investments whenever unexpected problems arise. Allocation of risk among the participants - in this case especially - is a very subtle issue, however, it was revealed that not many precedent researches were done on the subject. In my previous research, I classified and analyzed 4 principle risks i.e, construction, management, financial and social risk. This research investigates the reasonable allocation of the risks among the participants using the Hierarchial Fuzzy Process. In the result of analysis, responsibility of private party is the most important and it must put the responsibility before Government' roll concerned. Also, this research displayed and proposed the direction of management method on port development in a view of minimizing risk and maximizing initiative of a private party.

The Port Development has been achieved by the Government because it needs large scale of funds. However, since 1994, the Govenment has been implemeting private investments for constructing and operating the ports and so on. Although the Government had high expectation that it could expedite the expansion of the port facilities, there were many problems in view of construction, management, financial and social environment. This study figure out that most of the important reasons are the uncertainty of risk allocation between private investors and the Government, using with Analytic Hierarchy Process. It is expected that the results of this study will encourage more private investors to participate in port private investments in the future.

본 연구에서는 해상교량의 선박충돌 해석을 위한 설계선박을 결정하기 위한 선박충돌 위험도 분석을 수행하였다. 확률기반 해석과정을 포함하는 Method II를 이용하여 선박충돌 위험도 해석결과로부터 선박충돌에 대한 설계선박을 선정하였다. 계산연간파괴빈도와 허용기준을 반복 비교하는 해석과정에서는 연간파괴빈도 허용기준의 분배방법이 포함된다. 주탑집중 분배방법이 주탑에 비해 과대평가되는 교각의 설계 수평내하력을 적절히 수정할 경우에는 보다 경제적인 결과를 가져오지만, 교량부재의 중요도를 고려한 가중치에 의한 분배방법이 설계인자의 특성들을 정량적으로 고려하기 때문에 보다 합리적인 것으로 보인다. 선박충돌에 노출된 교각 각각에 대한 선박충돌위험도 평가로부터 교량의 대표 설계선박이 선정되었다. 설계선박은 같은 교량에서도 선박통행량 특성에 따라 많은 차이가 있다.