본 연구에서는 농업용 저수지의 저수율, 선행토양함수조건(AMC) 및 Huff 시간분포가 첨두유출량에 미치는 영향을 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 통해 분석하였다. 저수지 저수율, 선행토양함수조건 및 Huff 시간분포의 적용에 따라 4가지 경우에 대해 첨두홍수량을 산정하고 비교한 결과, 50~300년 빈도의 첨두홍수량은 저수율 100% 또는 AMCIII로 일괄 적용했을 때 각 조건의 발생확률을 고려한 첨두홍수량에 비해 20~30% 크게 산정되었다. Huff 3분위를 일괄 적용했을 때의 첨두홍수량은 발생확률을 고려한 Huff 분위 적용에 비해 5% 크게 산정되어, AMC와 저수지 저수율에 비해 첨두홍수량에 미치는 영향이 적었다.

Curve number (CN), originally developed, compiled by ‘The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)’, and has been widely used throughout the world. However, there is the uncertainty of CN derived from the use of antecedent moisture condition (AMC)/Antecedent Runoff Condition (ARC). As in Korea where nearly 70% covered by mountainous area, it is still not sufficient handbook precedent to guide or support the estimation of AMC/ARC. The failure to develop formal criteria of applying AMC/ ARC will be a gaping profession and results not only in uncertainty of CN estimation in particular, but also in designing appropriate structures in Korea as a whole. This paper is aiming at presenting a critical review of AMC/ARC and deriving a procedure to deal more realistically with event rainfall-runoff over wider variety of initial conditions. Proposed methods have been developed. It is based on modifying estimated runoff to observed runoff with coefficient of determination and then applying different algebraic expression with the verification of AMC by antecedent rainfall table of NEH-1964. Clearly indicated from 12 years period analysis and 2 years period of verification, normalized root mean square error, RE and E are best described by the application of algebraic expression by Arnold et al. at the value of 0.8950, 0.9460, and 0.0244 respectively for AMC condition and 1.3799, 0.9642 and -0.0197 respectively for ARC condition. Therefore, Arnold et al. algebraic equation is the best representation criteria of AMC and ARC. This algebraic expression might be applied properly considering South Korea condition.