This paper presents the conceptual framework for estimating and predicting system’s susceptibility to failure as function of condition parameter value which is representing the current status of performance measure using on-line performance reliability.

In this study, numerical analysis of TMD to estimate optimal-design-parameter is investigated using actual excitation, and evaluated by comparing results of numerical analysis and optimal-design-parameter was devised by Soong. It assumed between 1~2 seconds the 1st mode natural period of an aged apartment which has 10~15 stories and then investigated optimal-design-parameter of actual excitation for evaluate optimal frequency ratio and damping ratio according to local site condition. At this time mass ratio was 1% and range of tuned frequency ratio was 0.8Hz to 1.2Hz at intervals of 0.01Hz, and optimal damping ratio was 1% to 14% at intervals of 0.002%. It estimated Optimal-design-parameter was evaluated by numerical analysis according to peak and RMS displacement, acceleration respectively local site. And the result of evaluated respond performance parameter respectively a period was shown low numerical-value than optimal-design-parameter was devised by Soong what is more peak acceleration indicated performance difference of 20% over

본 연구에서는 Clark 합성단위도의 매개변수 추정치에 대한 신뢰구간을 좁힐 수 있는 방안으로, 이들을 강우, 기상, 및 유역 특성인자로 다변량 회귀분석한 후 이를 Monte Carlo 모의기법을 통하여 분석하였다. 아울러 이렇게 얻은 결과는 Bootstrap 기법으로 분석한 결과 및 기존에 많이 사용되어 왔던 경험식과도 비교 검토하였다. 이상과 같은 과정을 통해 얻은 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 관측된 호우사상의 수가 제한적인 경우, 유출특성에 미치는