This study analyzed the impact of improvements to the driver’s license system for elderly drivers on the incidence of traffic accidents. As South Korea’s population ages, the number of licensed drivers aged 65 years and older has surpassed 4.5 million as of 2024, accounting for approximately 15% of all license holders. Traffic accidents involving elderly drivers have increased steadily and tend to be more severe than those involving younger drivers. In response, the Road Traffic Act was amended in 2019 to shorten the license renewal cycle for drivers aged 75 and older, mandate dementia screening, and require traffic safety education. This study compared traffic accident statistics before and after the policy change (2018 and 2023) and used consulting data from 617 elderly drivers to examine the relationships between driving time, frequency, distance, and potential accident risk factors using a negative binomial regression analysis. The results show that after the policy changes, the number of traffic accidents per 10,000 elderly drivers decreased by up to 20.4%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the reforms. Furthermore, increased driving time, frequency, and distance were all significantly associated with a higher accident risk, whereas older age was linked to fewer accidents, likely owing to self-regulation among elderly drivers. Policy recommendations include limiting continuous driving time to 60 min, encouraging regular breaks, enhancing tailored safety education, tightening license aptitude test standards, and supporting the adoption of advanced safety features in vehicles. This study is expected to contribute to the development of effective policies to reduce traffic accidents among elderly drivers and create a safer traffic environment.

Even though cars have a good effect on modern society, traffic accidents do not. There are traffic laws that define the regulations and aim to reduce accidents from happening; nevertheless, it is hard to determine all accident causes such as road and traffic conditions, and human related factors. If a traffic accident occurs, the traffic law classifies it as ‘Negligence of Safe Driving’ for cases that are not defined by specific regulations. Meanwhile, as Korea is already growing rapidly elderly population with more than 65 years, so are the number of traffic accidents caused by this group. Therefore, we studied predictive and comparative analysis of the number of traffic accidents caused by ‘Negligence of Safe Driving’ by dividing it into two groups : All-ages and Elderly. In this paper, we used empirical monthly data from 2007 to 2015 collected by TAAS (Traffic Accident Analysis System), identified the most suitable ARIMA forecasting model by using the four steps of the Box-Jenkins method : Identification, Estimation, Diagnostics, Forecasting. The results of this study indicate that ARIMA (1, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable forecasting model in the group of All-ages; and ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable in the group of Elderly. Then, with this fitted model, we forecasted the number of traffic accidents for 2 years of both groups. There is no large fluctuation in the group of All-ages, but the group of Elderly shows a gradual increase trend. Finally, we compared two groups in terms of the forecast, suggested a countermeasure plan to reduce traffic accidents for both groups