Nifty Bank Index has started trading in futures and options (F&O) segment from 13th June 2005 in National Stock Exchange. The purpose of the study is to enhance the literature by examining expiration effect on the price volatility and price reversal of Underlying Index in India. Historical data used for the current study primarily comprise of daily close prices of Nifty Bank which is the only equity sectoral index in India which is traded in derivatives market and its Future contract value is derived from the underlying CNX Bank Index during the period 1st January 2010 till 31st March 2020. To check stationarity of the data, Augmented Dicky Fuller test was used. The study employed ARMA- EGARCH model for analysing the data. The empirical results revealed that there is no effect on the mean returns of underlying Index and EGARCH (1,1) model furthermore shows there is existence of leverage effect in the Bank Index i.e., negative shocks causes more fluctuations in the Index than positive news of similar magnitude. The outcome of the study specifies that there is no effect on volatility on the underlying sectoral index due to expiration days and also observed no price reversal effect once the expiration days are over.
This paper is the first of its kind using a non-linear approach based on cross-correlation function (CCF) to investigate the information arrival hypothesis in crude palm oil (CPO) futures market. Based on daily data from 1986 to 2010, our empirical results reveal that: First, the volume of volatility is not a proxy of information flow. Second, dependence causality running from current return to future volume in conditional variance exhibit an asymmetric pattern of time span with different signs of correlation between price and volume series. This finding indicates the presence of noise traders’ hypothesis of price-volume interaction in CPO futures market. Both findings suggest that this futures market is weak-form inefficiency. In terms of investors’ behavior, they tend to change their expectations on current return based on errors made in previous trade in generating abnormal volume in the subsequent period. As implied, it is advisable for the investors devise their future trading strategies according to time span and changes of return.
This study aims to examine the dynamics of price changes and trading volume of Kuala Lumpur Options and Financial Futures Exchange (KLOFFE) from 2000 to 2008. With augmented analysis, our results support two hypotheses. First, under information spillover, our findings support noise traders’ hypothesis as the time span for variance of past trading volume to cause variance of current return is found to be asymmetric under bull and bear markets. Second, looking at the dynamic relation between volume and volatility of price changes, our findings support Liquidity-Driven Trade hypothesis as past trading volume and subsequent volatility of return exhibit positive correlation. In terms of investors’ behavior in response to the news, we find that investors are more risk taking in bull market and more risk reverse in bear market. Our study suggests that investors should adjust their strategy in the futures market in a dynamic manner as the time span of new information arrival is not consistent. Also, uninformed investors with information asymmetry should expect noninformational trading from informed investors to establish their desired positions for better liquid position.