Investigating major trading partners and items with North Korea is informative in terms that it can predict the path through which North Korea’s strategic items will transfer to non-nuclear-weapon states when North Korea denuclearizes. By analyzing North Korea’s trading partners and the items, it is possible to identify the relevant countries through which items arrive from the first importing country to the end-user in the process of exporting items and to predict the way how North Korea disguise or conceal their strategic items among general items during normal export procedures. As of 2020, North Korea’s major trading partners are China, Russia, Vietnam, India, Nigeria, and Switzerland. Compared to 2019, Mozambique, Tanzania, Ghana, and Thailand entered the top 10, while Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Africa pushed out of the top 10. North Korea’s trade dependence on China accounts for 88.2%, making it the largest trading partner for years, and it shows that North Korea is mainly conducting trade with Asian and African countries. North Korea’s most important export items are mineral products (HS 25-27) and steel & metal products (HS 72-83) and the most significant import items are mineral products (HS 25-27) and oils & fats & prepared foods (HS 15-24). In 2017, due to UN Security Council sanctions for North Korea’s international ballistic missile (ICBM) test-fire, North Korea’s exports from 3 billion dollars fell by 90% to less than 300 million dollars. This is the result of most of North Korea’s major export items included in the export ban, and changes have occurred in its export items. In 2020, export fell to less than 100 million dollars due to border lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, which also affected the change of North Korea’s major export items. Although North Korea does not officially publish its foreign trade statistics, in order to review North Korea’s trade information, KOTRA statistics are utilized. KOTRA statistics provide only two digits of HS code number, so it is challenging to identify detailed item classification. Moreover, these statistics are based on the export amount, so it is difficult to determine the exact quantity of export items. It is expected that information on North Korean trading partners and items will be used to predict potential transferable export methods of North Korea’s strategic items when North Korea denuclearizes.

제주의 대중 수출은 2018년 기준 2,283만 달러로 연평균 38%씩 증가하고 있는 실정이나. 수출액은 타 지자체에 비해 미미한 수준이다. 본 연구에서는 대중 수출을 위한 제주 상품의 경쟁력 분석을 위해 제주산 주요 수출 품목군 선정과 함께 우선 순위를 도출하고자 하였다. 이는 향후 제주의 대중 수출에 대해 행정적인 측면에서 도 선택과 집중을 통해 수출을 활성화하기 위함이다. 본 연구에서는 무역특화지수와 시장비교우위지수를 활용하여 제주의 대중 수출 경쟁력을 분석하였으며, 제주의 수출 성장에 대한 주요 품목별 대중 수출 기여도를 산출하였다. 또한 상기 분석된 무역특화지수와 시장비교우위지수, 수출 기여도를 통해 Z-SCORE 가중치를 적용하여 제주지역의 대중 수출 우선순위 품목을 선정하였다. 연구결과 기초화장품(330499) 제1위, 소주 등 증류주(220890) 제2위, 기타혼합주스(200990) 제3위, 감귤류과실(200830) 제4위, 기타녹차(미발효)(090220) 제5위, 기타조제식품류(210690) 제6위, 기타어종-갈 치(030389) 제7위, 기타당류제품(170490) 제8위로 나타났다.