본 연구에서는 글로벌 회사채 포트폴리오의 신용위험(부도확률지표)에 대한 신용스프레드(OAS: 시장지표)의 선행성 여부 및 선행성 정도를 분석하였다. 두 지표를 회귀변수로 하는 시차상관성 분석 및 패널 회귀분석 결과 회사채 신용위험에 대해 시장지표가 유의한 선행성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 시장을 통해 신용위험 변화를 실시간 반영하는 시장지표가 해당 회사채의 신용위험 변화를 빠르게 포착하기 때문으로 풀이된다. 일일 데이터로 측정한 시장지표의 신용위험 시그널링 효과는 신용스프레드가 대체로 0.5개월 이후의 부도확률 악화를 가장 잘 설명하는 것으로 나타났다. 시장상황에 따라서도 선행성의 크기가 달리 나타났는데, 시장스트레스 시기일수록 높 은 변동성으로 인해 신용위험 변화에 시장지표가 더 민감하게 반응함으로써 동 시그널링 효과가 더 큰 것으로 분 석되었다. 금융복합성 증가 등으로 시장위험과 신용위험간 경계가 모호해지는 최근 흐름을 감안할 때 시장지표의 활용을 통해 신용리스크관리의 선제적 대응력을 높일 필요성이 더욱 커졌으며, 특히 시그널링 효과가 큰 시장스 트레스기 일수록 시장지표의 활용에 무게를 둘 필요가 있다.

The issue of health risks from consuming unhealthy product is an important issue that is happening right now. Both developed and developing countries are already aware of the need for attention to the health-risk products. One tool that is believed to be able to change the consumption behavior of the health-risk products is the use of warning label on product packaging. As a persuasive act, both visual and textual warning label are believed to be able to change people's consumption behavior. In addition to the labels that contain health hazards, this research also uses social consequence contents. The main targets of such unhealthy product marketing are children and adolescents. Correspondingly, this study targets the age groups of kids and tweens. The method used in this research is experiment, involving 180 participants from two age groups namely kids and tweens. As a result, the study found that the influence of warning label on the age of tweens is greater in the age of the children. Meanwhile, the use of visual and textual warning label using social consequences contents, proved to be effective at the age of tweens. These results are useful for enrich social marketing subjects, especially within warning label research.

The small number of fusion research that addresses fear-appeal and self-efficacy in the effectiveness of warning labels cause the label is not clear, then the purpose of the study is the first to examine the effect of the combination of the message. With the experimental method, a total of 240 participants were smokers consist of Indonesian university students in the age range 18-23 years. Data obtained then processed with ANOVA statistical methods and Test T. The results are consistent with previous studies that the visual warning labels more effective than the textual warning labels alone. Results also suggest that a warning label should be both visual and textual messages combined with self-efficacy. Limitations, this study does not differentiate among smokers and non-smokers, in addition to the images are used only one type of disease, so that the research needs to be done to distinguish these factors.