The Earth’s outer radiation belt often suffers from drastic changes in the electron fluxes. Since the electrons can be a potential threat to satellites, efforts have long been made to model and predict electron flux variations. In this paper, we describe a prediction model for the outer belt electrons that we have recently developed at Chungbuk National University. The model is based on a one-dimensional radial diffusion equation with observationally determined specifications of a few major ingredients in the following way. First, the boundary condition of the outer edge of the outer belt is specified by empirical functions that we determine using the THEMIS satellite observations of energetic electrons near the boundary. Second, the plasmapause locations are specified by empirical functions that we determine using the electron density data of THEMIS. Third, the model incorporates the local acceleration effect by chorus waves into the one-dimensional radial diffusion equation. We determine this chorus acceleration effect by first obtaining an empirical formula of chorus intensity as a function of drift shell parameter L*, incorporating it as a source term in the one-dimensional diffusion equation, and lastly calibrating the term to best agree with observations of a certain interval. We present a comparison of the model run results with and without the chorus acceleration effect, demonstrating that the chorus effect has been incorporated into the model to a reasonable degree.

It has long been known that the magnetospheric particles can precipitate into the atmosphere of the Earth. In this paper we examine such precipitation of energetic electrons using the data obtained from low-altitude polar orbiting satellite observations. We analyze the precipitating electron flux data for many periods selected from a total of 84 storm events identified for 2001-2012. The analysis includes the dependence of precipitation on the Kp index and the electron energy, for which we use three energies E1 > 30 keV, E2 > 100 keV, E3 > 300 keV. We find that the precipitation is best correlated with Kp after a time delay of < 3 hours. Most importantly, the correlation with Kp is notably tighter for lower energy than for higher energy in the sense that the lower energy precipitation flux increases more rapidly with Kp than does the higher energy precipitation flux. Based on this we suggest that the Kp index reflects excitation of a wave that is responsible for scattering of preferably lower energy electrons. The role of waves of other types should become increasingly important for higher energy, for which we suggest to rely on other indicators than Kp if one can identify such an indicator.