This study aims to measure the effects of real interest rate (RIR), gross domestic savings (GDS), and net exports (EN) shocks on Indonesia’s economic growth (EG). The focus on Indonesia is unique due to the abundant resources available in the nation, but they are unsuccessful in boosting economic growth. This study applied a quantitative method to comprehensively analyze the correlation between variables by employing Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Various procedures are preformed: Augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF), Optimum Lag Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, as well as Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Error Variance Decomposition Analysis (FEVD). The data were collected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank from 1986 to 2017. The findings of the study indicated that economic growth responded positively to real interest rate shocks, which implies that when the real interest rate experiences a shock (increase), the economy will be inclined to growth. While, economic growth responded negatively to gross domestic savings and net export shocks. Policymakers are expected to consider several matters, particularly the economic conditions at the time of formulating policy, so that the prediction effectiveness of a policy can be appropriately assessed.
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the real exchange rate and the output, which is based on the macroeconomic equilibrium theory in China. Its aim will be to verify whether the change in the real exchange rate has a significant effect on the output or not. Research design, data, and methodology - This study endeavors triestoinvestigatethecorrelationamongeconomicvariablesunder the macroeconomic market (the commodity market and the money market) equilibrium. So, time-series data from 1990 to 2016 is applied to establish a vector auto-regression (VAR) model so as to perform an empirical analysis. Results - The empirical results reveal that an increase in the real exchange rate will result in an increase in the output in the short run. However, the empirical results also indicate that this kind of mechanism cannot work in the long run. Conclusions - The effect of a decrease of real exchange rate on output is significant in the short run. Also, this paper suggests that the total supply and the total demand can promote economic growth. The fiscal and money policy play a significant role in economic growth in China as well.
The Supreme court admits the real evidence in spite of the unlawfulness during the process of acquiring it. The reason of the theory is that truth-worthiness of the real evidence has not been changed by the fault of the investigation in gathering evidence. Considering the want of Destruction of Justice statutes, the Supreme court strikes the balance between the public interest and private protection by admitting the real evidence on all occasions.
The reformed Criminal procedure law is going to introduce the exclusionary rule. The §302-2 stipulates that "The evidence which is not gathered by lawful process should be excluded." Comparing with other developed countries exclusionary rule, it is too broad.
For instance, PACE act §78 (1) in England is “In any proceeding the court may refuse to allow evidence on which the prosecution proposes to rely to be given if it appears to the court that, having regard to all the circumstances, including the circumstances in which the evidence was obtained, the admission of the evidence would have such an adverse effect on the fairness of the proceedings that the court ought not to admit it." In Canada, the constitution §24 ② provides that “Where, in proceedings under subsection (1), a court concludes that evidence was obtained in a manner that infringed or denied any rights or freedoms guaranteed by this Charter, the evidence shall be excluded if it is established that, having regard to all the circumstances, the admission of it in the proceedings would bring the administration of justice in to disrepute."
Even in the U.S., there are lots of exceptions to the exclusionary rule. Good faith theory, harmless error rule, the standing, restrictive application in Miranda rule violation. collateral use are the examples.
The German's Beweisverwertungsverbote is the theory concerned about balancing the interest to protect the privacy. Thus basically it doesn't matter the manner of gathering the evidence. So it stats from quite different angle.
When it comes to our exclusionary rule, we must be prudent when we apply the rules to the real case. We don't have to exclude the real evidence solely because it is not obtained according to the process of law. We should take into account the motive of the police, the seriousness of the case, the deterrence effects, the influence on the administration of justice, the value of the evidence.
If the evidence is procured by private party, it should not be excluded. The criminal justice system don't have to depend on third party's action. Also there is the possibility that the third party or dependant will abuse the rule. There will be no remarkable deterrent effect, even if we remove the evidence on account of private party's illegal behavior.