Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) in cosmic ray intensity observed during the period of 1997-2012 have been studied with energetic solar features and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters and it is seen that all the GLEs have been found to be associated with coronal mass ejections, hard X-ray solar ares and solar radio bursts. All the GLEs have also been found to be associated with sudden jumps in solar proton ux of energy of ≥ 60 Mev. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.48 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax%) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar proton ux of energy (≥ 60Mev). All the Ground Level Enhancements have been found to be associated with jumps in solar wind plasma velocity (JSWV) events. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.43 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar wind plasma velocity of associated (JSWV) events. All the Ground Level Enhancements have been found to be associated with jumps in solar wind plasma pressure (JSWP) events. A positive correlation with correlation coefficient of 0.67 has been found between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the peak value of solar wind plasma pressure of associated (JSWP) events and of 0.68 between the maximum percentage intensity (Imax %) of Ground Level Enhancements and the magnitude of the jump in solar wind plasma pressure of associated (JSWP) events.

It is investigated quantitative relations between the magnetic storm magnitude and the solar wind parameters such as the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (hereinafter, IMF) magnitude (B), the southward component of IMF (Bz), and the dynamic pressure during the main phase of the magnetic storm with focus on the role of the interplanetary shock (hereinafter, IPS) in order to build the space weather fore-casting model in the future capable to predict the occurrence of the magnetic storm and its magnitude quantitatively. Total 113 moderate and intense magnetic storms and 189 forward IPSs are selected for four years from 1998 to 2001. The results agree with the general consensus that solar wind parameter, especially, Bz component in the shocked gas region plays the most important role in generating storms (Tsurutani and Gonzales, 1997). However, we found that the correlations between the solar wind parameters and the magnetic storm magnitude are higher in case the storm happens after the IPS passing than in case the storm occurs without any IPS influence. The correlation coefficients of B and BZ(min) are specially over 0.8 while the magnetic storms are driven by IPSs. Even though recently a Dst prediction model based on the real time solar wind data (Temerin and Li, 2002) is made, our correlation test results would be supplementary in estimating the prediction error of such kind of model and in improving the model by using the different fitting parameters in cases associated with IPS or not associated with IPS rather than single fitting parameter in the current model.

Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

Solar variability is widely known to affect the interplanetary space and in turn the Earth’s electromagnetical environment on the basis of common periodicities in the solar and geomagnetic activity indices. The goal of this study is twofold. Firstly, we attempt to associate modes by comparing a temporal behavior of the power of geomagnetic activity parameters since it is barely sufficient searching for common peaks with a similar periodicity in order to causally correlate geomagnetic activity parameters. As a result of the wavelet transform analysis we are able to obtain information on the temporal behavior of the power in the velocity of the solar wind, the number density of protons in the solar wind, the AE index, the Dst index, the interplanetary magnetic field, B and its three components of the GSM coordinate system, BX, BY, BZ. Secondly, we also attempt to search for any signatures of influence on the space environment near the Earth by inner planets orbiting around the Sun. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Parameters we have investigated show periodicities of ~ 27 days, ~ 13.5 days, ~ 9 days. (2) The peaks in the power spectrum of BZ appear to be split due to an unknown agent. (3) For some modes powers are not present all the time and intervals showing high powers do not always coincide. (4) Noticeable peaks do not emerge at those frequencies corresponding to the synodic and/or sidereal periods of Mercury and Venus, which leads us to conclude that the Earth’s space environment is not subject to the shadow of the inner planets as suggested earlier.

As the prediction of geomagnetic storms is becoming an important and practical problem, conditions in the Earth’s magnetosphere have been studied rigorously in terms of those in the interplanetary space. Another approach to space weather forecast is to deal with it as a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecasting problem. In this study, we carry out detailed statistical analysis of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices examining the dependence of the distribution on the solar cycle and annual variations. Our main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of parameters obtained via the superimposed epoch method follows the Gaussian distribution. (2) When solar activity is at its maximum the mean value of the distribution is shifted to the direction indicating the intense environment. Furthermore, the width of the distribution becomes wider at its maximum than at its minimum so that more extreme case can be expected. (3) The distribution of some certain heliospheric parameters is less sensitive to the phase of the solar cycle and annual variations. (4) The distribution of the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field BV and the solar wind driving function BV2, however, appears to be all dependent on the solar maximum/minimum, the descending/ascending phases of the solar cycle and the equinoxes/solstices. (5) The distribution of the AE index and the Dst index shares statistical features closely with BV and BV2 compared with other heliospheric parameters. In this sense, BV and BV2 are more robust proxies of the geomagnetic storm. We conclude by pointing out that our results allow us to step forward in providing the occurrence probability of geomagnetic storms for space weather and physical modeling.