Among migratory insect pests, Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis are invasive pests introduced into South Korea through westerlies from southern China. M. seperata and C. medinalis are insect pests that use rice as a host. They injure rice leaves and inhibit rice growth. To understand the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis, it is important to understand environmental factors such as temperature and humidity of their habitat. This study predicted current and future habitat suitability models for understanding the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis. Occurrence data, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenario, and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) were applied to MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy), a machine learning model among SDM (Species Distribution Model). As a result, M. seperata and C. medinalis are aggregated on the west and south coasts where they have a host after migration from China. As a result of MaxEnt analysis, the contribution was high in the order of Land-cover data and DEM (Digital Elevation Model). In bioclimatic variables, BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality) was high in M. seperata and BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range) was found in C. medinalis. The habitat suitability model predicted that M. seperata and C. medinalis could inhabit most rice paddies.

We aimed to predict the Italian ryegrass (IRG) productivity change of introduced and domestic varieties based on climate factors and identify suitable areas for IRG cultivation using the RCP 8.5 scenario. The minimum mean air temperature in January showed the highest correlation with productivity. The ratio of possible and low productivity areas was high in Gangwondo, and the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the central and southern regions in the past 30 years. The change in the IRG cultivation area was found to be 26.9% in the best suitable area between 1981–2010 but increased significantly to 88.9% between 2090s. In the IRG suitability comparison classes between domestic and introduced cultivars, the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the domestic varieties during the past 30 years. However, there is almost no difference between the IRG domestic and introduced varieties in the IRG suitability classes after the 2050s. These results can predict changes in the IRG suitability classes between domestic and introduced cultivars according to the climate change scenario, but there are limitations in accurately predicting the productivity of IRG because the results may vary depending on other environmental factors.

From simple niche models to machine learning methods, there have been intensive efforts to understand the potentialdistribution of species in last two decades. Especially in the agricultural sector, recent SDM, Species Distribution Models,studies highly enthused to predict the potential distribution of invasive species under Climate Change. Beyond the distribution,efforts are needed to assess potential risk caused by the target pest. The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) are scenariosfor climate change impacts and adaptation measures. We used MaxEnt model to predict potential distribution of melonthrips with two RCPs (4.5, 8.5) and three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3) scenarios. In agricultural land, the potential distributionof melon thrips increases under climate change, but the impact is reduced with the development-oriented scenario, SSP3.

Araneae species are predators in natural ecosystem interact with various prey species. These linkage can be affected under climate change because species react not just individually but systematically. We focused on potential impact of climate change in Araneae fauna in national scale. In this study, potential species richness of Araneae in South Korea was predicted with MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model. Korea Forest Research Institute conducted national scale research of wandering arthropods. They monitored in uniformly set 366 points, and the data contain exact GPS points of study sites. Occurrence data were extracted from Prediction of Distribution and Abundance of Forest Spiders According to Climate Scenario (Korea Forest Research Institute, 2013). With the report, dominant 21 Araneae species that appeared more than 10% study sites were selected to estimate species richness. Training climate data were prepared from observation source of Korea Meteorological Administration. RCP 8.5 scenario data which represent future (2050, 2070) climate condition were downloaded from WORLDCLIM web site. In MaxEnt simulation, occurrence data for 21 species and 19 bioclimatic variables were used. Because the model outputs are expressed in index, the minimum training presence threshold rule was applied to distinguish presence/absence of each 21 species distribution model. We overlaid whole 21 thresholded output to get species richness map. The fluctuation between current and future species richness was calculated to observe changing trend in national scale. The results of Araneae fauna tends to move higher altitude and latitude. Species richness of lowlands is predicted to be diminished, but higher mountains are expected to be more suitable for many spider species. In some South Western coastal areas showed reduced richness in 2050 but will recover in 2070.

Model systems, if applied appropriately, give useful and rapid predictions of the potential distribution and population dynamics of the target species. Insect populations are poikilothermal animal and readily applied to model systems in several ways. Classical insect population models are focused on management purposes, for example, prediction of first occurrence period after cold weather season. Insect populations are distributed neither uniformly nor at random, or they are aggregated in patches, or they form gradients of other kinds of spatial structures which are closely related to their natural resources. Thus, developing insect population models should be considered not only with their physiological development and/or occurrence but also with their spatial distributions including their hosts. In this study, we discuss spatial distribution model of insect population with their host in order to future climate change scenario in Korea.

Based on climate change scenario, local distribution of insect pest population should be changed in near future as well as their host. Even though well defined insect geographical distribution model is developed and projected its potential establishment in Korea under climate change scenario, it has defectiveness without geographical matching of its host. SADIE (spatial analysis with distance indices) allows improved interpretation of the spatial associations between two populations within a given sampling area because it is designed for data that are distributed in discrete areas with relatively well-defined boundaries, and measures the extent of clustering with subsequent testing for spatial patterns in relationships among sample locations. In this study, we calculated and analyzed the spatial association between the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) of light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana, using CLIMEX, and projected farm land suitability of apple trees for the possibility of shift and matching geographical location of insect-host relationship under climate change scenario in Korea.

최근 WMO는 온실가스 배출량 시나리오(SRES)를 대신하여 대표농도경로(RCP)를 바탕으로 새로운 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하였으며 기상연구소는 RCP 시나리오를 바탕으로 한반도의 새로운 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하였다. 본 연구에서는 과거 관측값을 바탕으로 평년(1981-2010)의 애멸구의 우화시기와 세대수를 추정하였으며, RCP 8.5 시나리오를 바탕으로 2020년대(2015-2024), 2050년대(2045-2054)와 2090년대(2085-2094) 애멸구의 우화시기와 세대수를 예측하였다. 평년 애멸구 월동 1세대수의 우화일인 176.0±0.97일과 비교하여 2050년대에서는 13.2±0.18일(162.8±0.91일), 2090년대에는 32.1±0.61일(143.9±1.08일) 앞당겨질 것을 예측되었다. 그리고 애멸구의 연간 세대수는 2050년대에서는 현재보다 2.0±0.02세대, 2090년대에는 5.2±0.06세대 증가할 것으로 예측되었다.

본 연구에서는 ECHAM5 모델을 통하여 생산된 현재 및 A1B 미래 기후 변화 시나리오에 따른 미래기후 자료를 미 환경예측 센터의 분광모델인 RSM을 이용하여 역학적 규모축소를 수행하였다. 현재 기후 모의는 1980-2000년 기간에 대하여 수행되었으며, 미래 기후 모의는 2040-2070 기간에 대하여 CORDEX에서 제시한 동아시아 영역에서 수행되었다. RSM의 현재 기후 모의 검증을 통해 이 모델이 기후 관점에서 대기 상태를 적절히 모의함을 판단할 수 있었다. 미래 기후 모의 결과를 현재 기후 모의 결과와 비교하여 본 결과, 여름철에 열대 해양, 남아시아, 일본 부근에서 강수가 증가하였으며, 겨울철에는 서북 태평양 지역과 열대 인도양에서 강수가 증가하였고 열대 동인도양에서는 감소하였다. 동아시아 강수의 기후장에 있어서는 미래 기후가 현재와 큰 차이를 보이지 않지만 2050년 이후의 여름철 강수는 점차 증가하는 추세를 나타내고 있다. 미래 기후의 지상 온도는 현재와 비교해 볼 때 명확한 상승이 분석되었다. 대기장에 있어서는 미래 기후에서 지구 온난화에 대한 반응으로 전체적으로 온도와 지위고도장이 증가하는 변화를 나타내었으며 이에 따라 상층 기압골이 발달함을 보였다.

Pesticide application pattern for agricultural insect pest was modeled and simulated by temperature change scenarios using DYMEX simulator. For modeling pesticide application pattern, we evaluated bioassay using two-spotted spider mites (TSSM) in vitro. Four separated bioassay was evaluated at four different temperature conditions (20, 25, 30, and 35℃). Selected four commercial pesticides were Acrinathrin-Spiromesifen mixture, Fenpropathrin, Abamectin, and Azocyclotin, respectively. All the pesticide was used its recommended dose, except Abamectin (1/10 of recommended dose). Each mortality of TSSM were counted after 24 and 48 hours. Based on the bioassay results, increasing temperature made decreasing mortality in Acrinathrin-Spiromesifen mixture and Fenpropathrin, whereas increasing mortality in Abamectin and Azocyclotin, respectively. A TSSM model was developed and simulated under four temperature increasing scenarios (present condition, average 1, 2, and 3℃ increased conditions) using DYMEX simulator. The DYMEX results showed that the pesticides application pattern were different among four pesticides under climate change scenario. In conclusion, the pesticide application should be changed for sound management of agricultural insect pest under climate change scenario.

Due to recent heavy rain events, there are increasing demands for adapting infrastructure design, including drainage facilities in urban basins. Therefore, a clear definition of urban rainfall must be provided; however, currently, such a definition is unavailable. In this study, urban rainfall is defined as a rainfall event that has the potential to cause water-related disasters such as floods and landslides in urban areas. Moreover, based on design rainfall, these disasters are defined as those that causes excess design flooding due to certain rainfall events. These heavy rain scenarios require that the design of various urban rainfall facilities consider design rainfall in the target years of their life cycle, for disaster prevention. The average frequency of heavy rain in each region, inland and coastal areas, was analyzed through a frequency analysis of the highest annual rainfall in the past year. The potential change in future rainfall intensity changes the service level of the infrastructure related to hand-to-hand construction; therefore, the target year and design rainfall considering the climate change premium were presented. Finally, the change in dimensional safety according to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario was predicted.

기후변화는 홍수의 가장 큰 원인이 되는 극치강우의 빈도와 크기에 매우 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 특히, 우리나라에서 발생하는 대규모 재해는 강우에 의한 홍수피해가 대부분을 차지하고 있다. 이러한 홍수피해는 기후변화에 의한 극한강우의 발생 빈도가 높아짐에 따라 새로운 재해양상으로 전개되고 있다. 하지만, 미래 기후변화 시나리오 자료는 해상도의 한계로 인하여 중소규모 하천 및 도시유역에 요구되는 수준의 자료 수집이 불가능한 상태이다. 이러한 문제점을 개선하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 전지구모형에서 생산된 기후변화 시나리오에 대해서 여러 단계의 통계적 상세화 기법을 통하여 우리나라 전역에 대하여 미래 시나리오에 대한 빈도해석이 가능하도록 각 지점의 특성에 따라 시간적으로 상세화하기 위해 개발된 방 법 및 과정을 소개하였다. 이를 통해, 시간상세화 자료를 토대로 미래 강우에 대한 빈도해석과 기후변화에 따른 방재성능 목표강우량을 산정하는데 활용할 수 있도록 하였다.

The purpose of this study is to quantify the magnitudes of projected 21st century temperature changes and shifting climate zones over Mt. Halla, Korea based on high-resolution (1km×1km) climate change scenario data sets down-scaled from a global climate model (HadGEM2-AO) simulations using PRIDE (PRISM based Downscaling Estimation Model) as well as the simulations of a Regional Climate Model (RCM; HadGEM3-RA). The high resolution climate data demonstrate that the magnitudes of increases in coldest and warmest monthly mean temperatures over Mt. Halla will exceed those of the averages across the Korean Peninsula during the 21st century, leading to the shifts of climate zones. The isoline with 5°C (20°C) of the coldest (warmest) monthly average temperature associated with sub-tropical (sub-alpine) climate zones will migrate from 100~230m (950~1,300m) to 300~500m (1,300~1,600m) of altitude in the late 21st century (2071~2100) under the RCP 4.5 scenario. These changes are expected to be more obviously observed in the south flank of Mt. Halla as well as under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These results indicate that changes in climate zones will lead to the extinction of sub-alpine ecosystems over Mt. Halla due to increases of summertime heat stress as well as to the expansion of the sub-tropical forest zone toward mid-mountain regions due to reduction of wintertime stress in the warmer 21st century.

미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따르면 극한강우사상이 현재보다 더 강화될 것으로 전망되기 때문에, 기후변화의 영향이 추정절차에 반영되지 않는 다면 가능최대강수량(PMPs)을 과소 추정하게 될 가능성이 매우 높다. 본 연구에서는 미래의 강우 변동이 반영된 PMPs가 추정된다. PMPs 계산을 위하여 수문기상학적 방법이 이용되며, 기존에 사용되어오던 지형영향비를 대신하여 산악전이비가 가능최대강수량의 산정에 적용된다. 미래 주 요호우사상들로부터의 DAD는 기상청 RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 일 강수자료를 기반으로 편의보정 및 이동평균 된 변화인자를 이용하여 간접적으로 산출된다. 미래 PMPs 산출결과, 현재보다 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며 증가율은 2045년 기준으로 평균적으로 연간 3 mm 정도 증가하는 것으로 예측되었으며, 먼 미래로 갈수록 PMPs의 증가율은 커졌으나 미래강우자료로부터 유발되는 PMPs 추정의 불확 실성 또한 증가되고 있는 것으로 파악된다

Jeju Island is the highest rain-prone area in Korea that possesses affluent water resources, but future climate changes are predicted to further increase vulnerabilities as resultant of increasing of extreme events and creating spatial-temporal imbalance in water resources. Therefore, this study aimed to provide basic information to establish a proper water resources management plan by evaluating the effects of climate change on water resources using climate change scenario. Direct runoff ratio for 15 years (2000~2014) was analyzed to be 11∼32% (average of 23%), and average direct runoff ratio for the next 86 years (2015∼2100) was found as 28%, showing an increase of about 22% compared to the present average direct runoff ratio (23%). To assess the effects of climate change on long-term runoff, monthly runoff variation of future Gangjeong watershed was analyzed by dividing three time periods as follows: Present (2000∼2030), Future 1 (2031∼2070) and Future 2 (2071∼ 2100). The estimated results showed that average monthly runoff increases in the future and the highest runoff is shown by Future 2. Extreme values has been expected to occur more frequently in the future as compared to the present.

This study investigated the future change in surface wind over the Korean Peninsula using a high-resolution climate change scenario projected by a regional climate model (RCM). In the evaluation of historical runs (1981-2010), the RCM reasonably reproduced a 30-year annual mean surface wind and it also represented climatological seasonal wind pattern properly. To examine the future change in surface wind, the results from RCP8.5 run for 30 years (2071-2100) were compared with those from historical run. Despite of slight differences among seasons, southerly differences were overall dominant. This indicated that southerly prevailing wind for summer was intensified in the future climate, while northerly prevailing wind for other seasons was reduced. The changes in the seasonal mean surface wind were significantly associated with those in the surface pressure distribution surrounding the Korean Peninsula. In the future climate, the monthly mean wind speed was reduced compared in the present climate. However, the magnitude and annual variability of the annual maximum wind speed tended to increase in the future climate.

본 연구에서는 고해상도 기후시나리오를 이용하여 국내 대표 도시 지역인 서울특별시를 대상으로 기준기간(1971～2000년) 대비 미래기간 2020s (2011～2040년), 2050s (2041～2070년), 2080s (2071～2100년)의 기후변화에 따른 배수시스템의 영향을 평가하 였다. 이를 위해 과거 관측 강수량 자료는 기상청 관할 기상관측소와 자동기상관측망 자료를 이용하였으며, 기후변화 시나리오는 RegCM3과 Sub-BATS 기법을 통해 역학적 상세화된 5 × 5 km 해상도 기반의 시단위 강수량 자료를 생산하였다. 과거기간 대비 미래기간 확률강우량의 변동성을 비교한 결과 과거기간 대비 2080s의 확률강우량 증가율은 28～54%로 나타났으며, 특히 지속시간 3시간, 6시간, 24시간 확률강우량의 증가폭이 크게 나타났다. 또한 배수시스템의 기후변화 영향을 직접적으로 분석하기 위해 XP-SWMM을 이용하여 유출해석을 수행하였다. 평가 결과, 강우강도 증가로 인해 과거기간 대비 미래 3기간에 공릉1, 서초2, 신림4 배수분구의 침수발생 맨홀 수와 월류량이 크게 증가하였다. 이러한 결과는 현재 구축되어 있는 서울시 배수시스템은 기후변화 에 취약함을 나타내고 있으며, 이에 대응하기 위해 다양한 기후변화 적응대책이 요구됨을 의미한다.c