Future changes in mineral dust emission are studied using CMIP5 models. These models simulate climatological spatial distribution of dust emission over the observed major sources; Sahara Desert to Arabia and Southwest Asia. Model estimates for the range of global dust emission simulation appear large in the quantity of dust produced and the amplitude of interannual variability. According to the ensemble mean in global annual emissions, projections of four RCPs do not have significant long-term trends in mineral dust aerosol emissions at the end of 21st century. Meanwhile over Northeast Asia, annual emissions are projected to decrease significantly in four RCPs. Reductions appear over the major sources of mineral dust. Seasonally emission reduction in spring is distinct. In April and May, future changes with decreasing emission appear only in RCP4.5 with significance. Aerosol emission amount changes are related to changes in land surface property. We analyze future projection of soil moisture and bare soil area fraction. Regarding the projected decreasing trend in the annual emission amount over Northeast Asia, soil moisture is expected to increase in the emission source region in four RCPs. Relatively, the effect of bare soil area changes over the emission source appears in some models and RCPs.

• 김태희(국립기상연구소 기후연구과) | TaeHee Kim Correspondence
• 부경온(국립기상연구소 기후연구과) | Kyung-On Boo
• 이조한(국립기상연구소 기후연구과) | Johan Lee
• 조천호(국립기상연구소 예보연구과) | ChunHo Cho