감단율법은 벌기령의 평균과 분산을 기반으로 한 수확예측기법으로서, 본 연구에서는 감단율 기법중 의 하나인 벌채면적 가중치법(FAW)과 벌채면적 비율가중치법(FARW)을 적용하여 강원도의 산림경영계 획수립을 위한 30년간(1분기=10년)의 벌채계획량을 추정하였다. 감단율 추정을 위하여 임업통계연보의 10년간(1999년-2008년) 산림면적변화량을 벌채면적으로 가정하여 적용하였으며, FAW와 FARW에 의한 벌기령의 평균과 분산은 각각 4.63, 0.78와 5.18, 0.80였다. 또한, 계획기간동안의 벌채량은 각각 383,597ha와 344,315ha로 예측되었으며, FAW와 FARW에 의하여 추정된 벌채면적과 임업통계연보의 산림면적변화량을 비교한 결과, FAW에 의한 벌채량은 FARW보다 적합도지수가 우수하였다. 또한, FAW에 의한 분기별 벌채변화량은 서서히 증가하는 반면, FARW은 3분기에 급격히 하였다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 FAW에 의한 벌채계획모델이 FARW보다 적합한 것으로 판단된다.

The gentan probability is based on the harvest yield prediction techniques using average and variance. An amount of planned felling for 30year (1period= 10year) was estimated for the forest management plan establishment of Gangwon province by using the felling area weight(FAW) and felling area rate weight(FARW), which are one of the gentan probability techniques. To estimate the gentan probability, area changes of the period between 1999 and 2008 from 'the Statistical Yearbook of Forestry' are utilized as the replacement value of felling areas. The average and variance of the felling age calculated by FAW were 4.63 and 0.78 respectively, while those by FARW were 5.18 and 0.80. Then, the planned felling area were estimated to be 383,597ha and 344,315ha respectively. The study compares between the felling areas of the planned period estimated by using FAW and FARW, and the area changes from the Statistical Yearbook of Forestry. According to the result, felling area estimated by FAW was suitable to felling area by FARW with regards to suitability index. Also, while the quarterly changing felling volume by FAW showed steady increases, that by FARW showed a sharp increase in the third quarter. Therefore, the felling planning model by FAW was considered more suitable than the model by FARW.

• 박진우(Department of Forest Management, College of Forest and Environmental Sciences, Kangwon National University,) | Jin-Woo Park
• 이정수(Department of Forest Management, College of Forest and Environmental Sciences, Kangwon National University,) | Jung-Soo Lee Corresponding author