Two climate change scenarios, the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were applied in the Yocheon basin area using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to estimate changes in flow rates and pollutant loadings in the future. Field stream flow rate data in Songdong station and water quality data in Yocheon-1 station between 2013~2015 were used for model calibration. While R2 value of flow rate calibration was 0.85 and R2 value of water qualities were in the 0.12~0.43 range. The total study period was divided into 4 sub periods as 2030s (2016~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2100). The predicted results of flow rates and water quality concentrations were compared with results in calibrated periods, 2015s (2013~2015). In both RCP scenarios, flow rate and TSS (Total Suspended Solid) loadings were estimated to be in increasing trend while TN (Total Nitrogen) and TP (Total Phosphorus) loadings showed decreasing patterns. Also, flow rates and pollutant loadings showed larger differences between the maximum and the minimum values in RCP 4.5 than RCP 8.5 scenarios indicating more severe effect of drought and flood, respectively. Dependent on simulation period and rainfall periods in a year, flow rate, TSS, TN and TP showed different trends in each scenario. This emphasizes importance of considerations on time and space when analyzing climate change impacts of each variable under various scenarios.

ABSTRACT
 1. 서 론
 2. 연구방법
  2.1 기후변화 시나리오
  2.2 연구 대상 지역
  2.3 SWAT 모델
  2.4 모델의 구축
 3. 결 과
  3.1 요천 유역 SWAT 모델 유량 및 수질 보정
  3.2 기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 유출량 및 오염부하 변화량 예측
 4. 결 론
 References

• 장유진(충남대학교 환경공학과) | Yujin Jang
• 박종태(충남대학교 환경공학과) | Jongtae Park
• 서동일(충남대학교 환경공학과) | Dongil Seo Corresponding author