In this study, the regional climate (WRF) and air quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate the effects of future urban growth on surface ozone concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR). These analyses were performed based on changes in ozone concentrations during ozone seasons (May–June) for the year 2050 (future) relative to 2012 (present) by urban growth. The results were compared with the impacts of RCP scenarios on ozone concentrations in the SMR. The fractions of urban in the SMR (25.8 %) for the 2050 were much higher than those (13.9 %) for the 2012 and the future emissions (e.g., CO, NO, NO2, SO2, VOC) were increased from 121 % (NO) to 161.3 % (NO2) depending on emission material. The mean and daily maximum 1-h ozone in the SMR increased about 3 - 7 ppb by the effect the RCP scenarios. However, the effect of urban growth reduced the mean ozone by 3 ppb in the SMR and increased the daily maximum 1-h ozone by 2 - 5 ppb over the northeastern SMR and around the coastline. In particular, the ozone pollution days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard (100 ppb) were far more affected by urban growth than mean values. As a result, the average number of days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard increased up to 10 times.

Abstract
 1. 서 론
 2. 연구방법
  2.1. 모델링 구성
  2.2. 모델링 실험설계 및 연구방법
 3. 결과 및 토의
  3.1. 모델 평가
  3.2. 기후변화 분석 및 기여도 평가
  3.3. 오존농도 변화 분석 및 기여도 평가
 4. 결론
 REFERENCE

• 석현배(부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) | Hyeon-Bae Seok (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University)
• 정주희(부산대학교 대기환경과학과) | Ju-Hee Jeong (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
• 강윤희(부산대학교 환경연구원) | Yoon-Hee Kang (Institute of Environmental Studies, Pusan National University)
• 김현수(부산대학교 대기환경과학과) | Hyunsu Kim (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
• 김유근(부산대학교 대기환경과학과) | Yoo-Keun Kim (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) Corresponding author