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CORDEX II 동아시아 지역에서의 RegCM4.0 모의 자료를 이용한 한반도 지역에서의 21C 중·후반 극한 기온 변화 전망 KCI 등재

Future Projections of Changes in Extreme Temperature over South Korea for the Mid and Late 21st Century using RegCM4.0 Simulations over CORDEX II East Asia

  • 언어KOR
  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/380498
  • DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2019.14.2.69
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기후연구 (Journal of Climate Research)
건국대학교 기후연구소 (KU Climate Research Institute)
초록

We estimated changes in temperature-related extreme events over South Korea for the mid and late 21st Century using the 122 years (1979-2100) data simulated by RegCM4 with HadGEM2-AO data as boundary conditions. We analyzed the four extreme events (Hot day: HD, Tropical day: TD, Frost day: FD, Icing Day: ID) and five extreme values (Maximum temperature 95/5 percentile: TX95P/TX5P, Minimum temperature 95/5 percentile: TN95P/TN5P, Daily temperature range 95 percentile: DTR95P) based on the absolute and relative thresholds, respectively. Under the global warming conditions, hot extreme indices (HD, TD, TX95P, TN95P) increase, suggesting more frequent and severe extreme events, while cold extreme indices (FD, ID, TX5P, TN5P) decrease their frequency and intensities. In the late 21st Century, changes in extremes are greater in severe global warming scenario, RCP8.5 rather than RCP4.5. HD and TD (FD and ID) are expected to increase (decrease) in the mid 21st Century. The average HD is expected to increase by 14 (17) days in RCP4.5 (8.5). All the percentile indices except for DTR95P are expected to increase in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the late 21st Century, HD and TD are significantly increased in RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5, but FD and ID are expected to be significantly reduced. HD is expected to increase mainly in the southwestern region, twice (+41 days) in RCP8.5. TD is expected to increase by 17 days in RCP8.5, which is 5 times greater than that in RCP4.5. TX95P, TN95P and TX5P are expected to increase by about 2°C and 4°C in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. TN5P is expected to increase significantly by 4°C and 7°C in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.

목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 연구방법
    1) 자료
    2) 연구방법
3. 연구 결과
    1) 기온관련 극한현상에 대한 모의수준
    2) 21C 중반 극한기온의 변화전망
    3) 21C 후반 극한기온의 변화전망
4. 요약 및 결론
References
저자
  • 서명석(공주대학교 대기과학과) | Myoung-Seok Suh (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University)
  • 김태준(국립기상과학원 기후연구과) | Tae-Jun Kim (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) Correspondence
  • 장은철(공주대학교 대기과학과) | Eun-Chul Chang (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University)