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시계열분석을 이용한 중부내륙지역에서 수수-수단그라스 교잡종의 건물수량 추세 확인 KCI 등재
Determination of Trend in Dry Matter Yield of Sorghum-sudangrass Hybrid (Sorghum bicolor L.) in Central Inland of Korea via Time Series Analysis
pp.31-39
This study aimed to determine the trend in dry matter yield (DMY) of a new sorghum-sudangrass hybrid (SSH) in the central inland regions of Korea. The metadata (n=388) were collected from various reports of the experiments examining the adaptability of this new variety conducted by the Rural Development Administration (1988–2013). To determine the trend, the parameters of autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) were estimated from correlogram of Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial ACF (PACF) using time series modeling. The results showed that the trend increased slightly year by year. Furthermore, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was found to be the optimal model to describe the historical trend. This means that the trend in the DMY of the SSH was associated with changes over the past two years but not with changes from three years ago. Although climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine were also considered as environmental factors for the annual trends, no clear association was observed between DMY and climates. Therefore, more precise processing and detailed definition of climate considering specific growth stages are required to validate this association. In particular, research on the impact of heavy rainfall and typhoons, which are expected to cause damage in the short term, on DMY trends is ongoing, and the model confirmed in this study is expected to play an important role in studying this aspect. Furthermore, we plan to add the environmental factors such as soil and cultivation management as well as climate to our future studies.
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 재료 및 방법
1. 자료 수집 및 변수생성
2. 통계적 분석방법
Ⅲ. 결과 및 고찰
1. SSH의 연도별 DMY추세에 대한 확인
2. SSH의 연도별 DMY추세에 대한 기후적 영향
Ⅳ. 결론
Ⅴ. 요약
Ⅵ. 참고문헌
