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ASOS와 ERA5 자료를 이용한 기계학습 기반의 폭염지수 예측가능성 평가 - 1979~2020년 우리나라의 사례연구 - KCI 등재

Assessment of the Predictability of Heatwave Index Using ASOS and ERA5 Data with Machine Learning: Case Study of South Korea, 1979-2020

  • 언어KOR
  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/409143
  • DOIhttps://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2021.16.2.147
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기후연구 (Journal of Climate Research)
건국대학교 기후연구소 (KU Climate Research Institute)
초록

Heatwaves can affect human health and vegetation growth and bring about energy problems and socioeconomic damages, so the analysis and prediction of the heatwave is a crucial issue under a warming climate. This paper examines the production of STCI (Standard Temperature Condition Index) using ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) in-situ observation data for the period of 1979-2020, and an STCI predictability assessment with an RF (Random Forest) model using ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis 5) meteorological variables. The accuracy was quite high with the MAE (Mean Absolute Error) of 0.365 and the CC (Correlation Coefficient) of 0.873, which corresponded to 7% to 10% difference for the range of STCI<1.5, and to 1% to 3% difference for the range of STCI>1.5, in terms of the probability density function. Also, we produced gridded maps for the summer STCI from 1979 to 2020 by utilizing the ERA5 raster data for the RF prediction model, which enables the spatial expansion of the ASOS point-based STCI to a continuous grid nationwide. The proposed method can be applied to forecasting of STCI by adopting future meteorological or climatic datasets.

목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료와 방법
    1) ASOS 기상관측자료와 STCI
    2) ERA5 재분석장
    3) 기계학습 모델링
    4) 월별 STCI 격자자료 산출
3. 결과 및 토의
    1) 과거 STCI 분석
    2) STCI 예측가능성 평가
    3) STCI 격자자료 산출
4. 결론
References
저자
  • 김근아(부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 공간정보공학전공) | Geunah Kim (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
  • 강종구(부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 공간정보공학전공) | Jonggu Kang (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
  • 정예민(부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 공간정보공학전공) | Yemin Jeong (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
  • 김서연(부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 공간정보공학전공) | Seoyeon Kim (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
  • 조수빈(부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 공간정보공학전공) | Subin Cho (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University)
  • 하경자(부산대학교 대기환경과학과) | Kyung-Ja Ha (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
  • 이양원(부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 공간정보공학전공) | Yangwon Lee (Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University) Correspondence