논문 상세보기
pp.23-32
PURPOSES : With the recent enactment of the 「Framework Act on Sustainable Infrastructure Management」 in Korea, the establishment of mid- to long-term management plans for social infrastructure and the feasibility evaluation of maintenance projects have become mandatory. To this end, the life cycle cost analysis is essential. However, owing to the absence of a deterioration model, trials and errors are in progress.
METHODS : In this study, a deterioration model was established for bridges, which are the representative social infrastructures of roads, particularly for expansion joints that can cause enormous damage to not only the superstructure but also the substructure. The deterioration model was classified into rubber and steel, based on the material of the expansion joint. The analysis used the inspection and climate data conducted in Korea over the last 12 years. The Bayesian Markov Hazard model was applied as the analysis technique.
RESULTS : The average life expectancy by type of expansion joint was analyzed to be 8.9 and 6.6 years for rubber and steel, respectively. For probabilistic life cycle cost analysis, the probability distribution of the life expectancy, validity range by confidence level, and Markov transition probability matrix were presented.
CONCLUSIONS : In this study, the basis for deterministic and probabilistic life cycle cost analysis of expansion joints was laid. In future studies, it will be necessary to establish a standardized deterioration model for all types of infrastructure, including all bridge elements.
1. 서론
2. 열화모델링 기법
2.1. 개요
2.2. 다단계 지수 해저드 모형 기반 마르코프 연쇄
2.3. MCMC 기반 모델 파라미터 추정
3. 실증분석
3.1. 데이터 수집 및 가공
3.2. 모델 파라미터 추정 및 기대수명 분석 결과
3.3. 기대수명의 불확실성 분석
3.4. 마르코프 상태 전이확률 분석 결과
4. 결론
REFERENCES
