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공공데이터 및 통계 모형 기반 대형선망어업 어장 예측 연구 KCI 등재

A study on fishing ground prediction for large purse seine fisheries based on public data and statistical models

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  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/449053
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수산해양기술연구 (Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology)
한국수산해양기술학회(구 한국어업기술학회) (The Korean Society of Fisheriers and Ocean Technology)
초록

This study develops a scientific fishing-ground exploration framework for the Korean large purse-seine fishery, where traditional experience-based searching has become increasingly unreliable under rapid climate variability. AIS-derived fishing locations from 2021 to 2023 were integrated with HYCOM-based temperature and salinity fields and MODIS-Aqua chlorophyll-a data to construct a unified environmental – fishing dataset. After multicollinearity screening and principal component analysis, temperature and salinity at 30 m depth and chlorophyll-a were selected as representative predictors. Using these variables, a generalized additive model (GAM) with background-sampled pseudo-absence data and monthly maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models were developed to quantify nonlinear habitat – environment relationships and predict monthly and seasonal mackerel fishing occurrences. Model performance was evaluated using independent data from 2024. GAM exhibited relatively stable predictive performance across months with generally high AUC and TSS values whereas MaxEnt showed pronounced seasonal variability and was effective in identifying potential habitat structures based on presence-only environmental conditions. Spatial predictions from both models showed good agreement with observed fishing-ground distributions during specific seasons, reproducing high-suitability zones associated with seasonal thermal – salinity fronts and productivity gradients. These results provide insights into the environmental mechanisms governing purse-seine fishing grounds and demonstrate the complementary roles of GAM for operational prediction and MaxEnt for potential habitat exploration.

목차
서 론
재료 및 방법
    조업활동 자료
    해양환경 자료
    일반화 가법 모형(Generalized Additive Model, GAM)
    최대 엔트로피 모형(Maximum Entropy Model, MaxEnt)
결과 및 고찰
    모형 입력 환경변수 선정
    GAM 모형 형성
    MaxEnt 모형 형성
    대형선망어업 어장 예측 전략
결 론
References
저자
  • 유영재(국립부경대학교 대학원 해양생산관리학부 수산물리학전공 대학원생) | Youngjae YU (Student, Division of Marine Production Management (Major in Fisheries Physics), Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea)
  • 최연욱(해양수산부 동해어업관리단 주무관) | Yeonook CHOI (Assistant director, East Fisheries Management Service, Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries, Busan 46079, Korea)
  • 김형석(국립부경대학교 해양생산시스템관리학부 교수) | Hyung-Seok KIM (Professor, Division of Marine Production System Management, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea)
  • 류경진(국립부경대학교 해양생산시스템관리학부 교수) | Kyung-Jin RYU (Professor, Division of Marine Production System Management, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea) Corresponding author