Numerous studies have established a correlation between sociodemographic characteristics and water usage, identifying population as a primary independent variable in mid- to long-term demand forecasting. Recent dramatic sociodemographic changes, including urban concentration-rural depopulation, low birth rates-aging population, and the rise in single-person households, are expected to impact water demand and supply patterns. This underscores the necessity for operational and managerial changes in existing water supply systems. While sociodemographic characteristics are regularly surveyed, the conducted surveys use aggregate units that do not align with the actual system. Consequently, many water demand forecasts have been conducted at the administrative district level without adequately considering the water supply system. This study presents an upward water demand forecasting model that accurately reflects real water facilities and consumers. The model comprises three key steps. Firstly, Statistics Korea’s SGIS (Statistical Geological Information System) data was reorganized at the DMA level. Secondly, DMAs were classified using the SOM (Self-Organizing Map) algorithm to consider differences in water facilities and consumer characteristics. Lastly, water demand forecasting employed the PCR (Principal Component Regression) method to address multicollinearity and overfitting issues. The performance evaluation of this model was conducted for DMAs classified as rural areas due to the insufficient number of DMAs. The estimation results indicate that the correlation coefficients exceeded 0.9, and the MAPE remained within approximately 10% for the test dataset. This method is expected to be useful for reorganization plans, such as the expansion and contraction of existing facilities.
Waterworks facilities inevitably experience some amount of leakage even if there is a lot of investment or state-of-the-art technology that is applied such as DMA(District Metered Area) system construction, leakage detection, repair, pipe rehabilitation, etc. The primary reason is the leakage is naturally restored over time. In the UK, this restoration characteristic is defined as NRR(Natural rate of rise of leakage) and used to decision making for prioritizing active leakage control of DMAs. However, this restoration characteristic is well recognized, but researches on NRR in the water distribution system are insufficient in Korea. In this study, the estimation method of NRR was developed suitable for applicating in Korea considering of SCADA data, water infrastructure, and water usage patterns by modification of the UK's NRR method. The proposed method was applied to 9 DMAs and verified it's applicability by comparing with the other water loss performance indicators. It is expected that the proposed method can be used to support decision making for sustainable NRW(Nor-revenue water) management in the water distribution system.