According to the “Law on protection and response measures for nuclear facilities and radiation”, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) licensees should conduct periodic exercises based on hypothetical cyberattack scenarios, and there is a need to select significant and probable ones in a systematic manner. Since cyber-attacks are carried out intentionally, it is difficult to statistically specify the sequences, and it is not easy to systematically establish exercise scenarios because existing engineering safety facilities can be forcibly disabled. To deal with the above situation, this paper suggests a procedure using the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) model to develop a cybersecurity exercise scenario. The process for creating cyber security exercise scenarios consists of (i) selecting cyber-attack-causing initiating events, (ii) identifying digital systems, (iii) assigning cyber-attack vectors to a digital system, (iv) determining and adding type for operator’s response, (v) modifying a baseline PSA model, and (vi) extracting top-ranked minimal cut sets, and (vii) selecting a representative scenario. This procedure is described in detail through a case study, an expected cyber-attack scenario General Transient-Anticipated Transient Without Scram (GTRN-ATWS). It refers to an accident scenario for ATWS induced by GTRN. Since ATWS is targeted for cyber training in some NPPs, and GTRN is one of the most common accidents occurring in NPPs, GTRN-ATWS was chosen as an example. As for the cyber-attack vector, portable media and mobile devices were selected as examples based on expert judgment. In this paper, only brief examples of GTRN-ATWS events have been presented, but future studies will be conducted on an analysis of all initiating events in which cyber-attacks can occur.

Many countries have been developing their own FEP (Feature, Event, Process) lists to formulate radionuclide release scenarios in deep disposal repository of spent nuclear fuels and to assess the safety. The main issue in developing a FEP list is to ensure its completeness and comprehensiveness in examining all plausible scenarios of radionuclide release in a repository of interest. To this end, the NEA International FEP (IFEP) list as a generic reference have been developed and updated through long-term international collaborations. Leading countries advanced in the research field of deep geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuels have comparatively mapped their project-specific FEP (PFEP) lists with the IFEP list. Recently in 2019, NEA has published an updated version of IFEP list (ver. 3.0) which has a different classification system: the IFEP version 3.0 has the five main categories including the waste package, repository, geosphere, biosphere and external factors while the previous IFEP versions were mainly classified into the external, environmental, and contaminant factors. Most leading countries in this field, Finland and Sweden, recently succeeded to obtain the design and/or construction licenses for deep geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel. Therefore, their PFEP lists should be good benchmark cases to the following countries. However, their PFEP lists have not comparatively mapped with the most recent version of IFEP and thus some gaps may exist in showing completeness and comprehensiveness in comparison to the IFEP version 3.0. In this study, we comparatively map the PFEP lists of Finland and Sweden to the IFEP version 3.0. The comparatively mapped PFEP list could be used as the basis for verifying the comprehensiveness and completeness of the domestic PFEP list currently under development in Korea.

Safety assessment is important for the radioactive waste repositories, and several methods are used to develop scenarios for the management of radioactive waste. The intent of the use of these scenarios is to show how the radio nuclides release can affect the safety of disposal system. It plays an essential role of providing scientific and technical information for performance assessment of safety functions. As important as scenario is, numerous studies for their own scenario development have been conducted in many countries. Scenario development methodology is basically divided into four categories: (1) judgmental, (2) fault/event-tree analysis, (3) simulation, and (4) systematic. Under numerous research, these methods have been developed in ways to strengthen the advantages and make up for the weakness. However, it was hard to find any judgmental or fault/event-tree analysis approach in recent safety assessments since they are not well-systemized and difficult to cover all scenarios. Simulation and systematic approaches are used broadly for their convenience of analyzing needed scenarios. Furthermore, several new methodologies, Process Influence Diagram (PID)/Rock Engineering System (RES)/Hybrid, were developed to reinforce the systematic approach in recent studies. Currently, a government project related to the disposal of spent nuclear fuel is in progress in Korea, and the scenario development for safety case is one of the important tasks. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the characteristics and strengths and weaknesses of the latest scenario development and analysis methods to create a unique methodology for Korea. In this paper, the existing methodologies and cases will be introduced, and the considerations for future scenario development will be summarized by considering those used in the nuclear field other than repository issues. Systematic approach, which is the mostly commonly used method, will be introduced in detail with its use in other countries at the subsequent companion paper entitled ‘Case Study for a Disposal Facility for the Spent Nuclear Fuel’.

In Korea, research on the development of safety case, including the safety assessment of disposal facility for the spent nuclear fuel, is being conducted for long-term management planning. The safety assessment procedure on disposal facility for the spent nuclear fuel heavily involves creating scenarios in which radioactive materials from the repository reach the human biosphere by combining Features, Events and Processes (FEP) that describe processes or events occurring around the disposal area. Meanwhile, the general guidelines provided by the IAEA or top-tier regulatory requirements addressed by each country do not mention detailed methods of ‘how to develop scenarios by combining individual FEPs’. For this reason, the overall frameworks of developing scenarios are almost similar, but their details are quite different depending on situation. Therefore, in order to follow up and clearly analyze the methods of how to develop scenarios, it is necessary to understand and compare case studies performed by each institution. In the previous companion paper entitled ‘Research Status and Trends’, the characteristics and advantages/disadvantages of representative scenario development methods were described. In this paper, which is a next series of the companion papers, we investigate and review with a focus on details of scenario development methods officially documented. In particular, we summarize some cases for the most commonly utilized methods, which are categorized as the ‘systematic method’, and this method is addressed by Process Influence Diagram (PID) and Rock Engineering System (RES). The lessons-learned and insight of these approaches can be used to develop the scenarios for enhanced Korean disposal facility for the spent nuclear fuel in the future.

Safety evaluation of high-level radioactive waste disposal facilities including spent nuclear fuel is a very urgent and critical issue, and in order to do so, it is very important to develop a safety case that includes Feature, Event, Process (FEP) analysis, scenario development, and scenario uncertainty evaluation. In the case of Korea, the disposal of spent nuclear fuel is recognized as an unavoidable option, and in the end, Korea’s specific FEP (SFEP) development and safety evaluation according to the scenario should be conducted. Because each country’s situation and environment are different, it is necessary to develop an SFEP based on a generic FEP (International FEP). To this end, an understanding of IFEP is essential. In this study, about 1,000 major terms appearing in the OECD/NEA IFEP are classified to where each of them belongs among F, E, and P, and which FEP each word belongs to, and the correlation between the frequency of occurrence and each term is analyzed. This result will serve as a reference for the results of SFEP analysis such as POSIVA and SKB, which our research team will analyze later. In addition, each term belongs to which academic field, and the most appropriate translation for translating each term into Korean is also described.

Since July 2021, the Korea Radioactive Waste Agency has been conducting a safety case development study for the Korean deep geological repository program. The safety case includes generating scenarios in which radioactive materials from spent nuclear fuel repository reach the human biosphere by combining selective FEPs (Features, Events, and Processes). This safety case should be able to transparently explain the process in which conclusions have been drawn not only to stakeholders but also to the public by presenting safety arguments. The scenario development stage consisting of FEP screening, scenario generation, and uncertainty analysis procedures should have a database management system. Database management system was performed in countries such as Sweden, which obtained approval for the construction of spent nuclear fuel repositories, and the United States, where various preliminary research was carried out. Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute also has experience in designing and operating its own database, which has conducted preliminary research on disposal of the spent nuclear fuel. Currently, the safety assessment of the Korean spent nuclear fuel repository is in the early stages of research, but it is necessary to set up a basic framework for database design while the collection of FEP data from domestic and international preliminary studies is under development, and it is advantageous for efficient database construction and operation. Therefore, this paper presents the current status of database design considering completeness and transparency from the FEP screening stage to the scenario development stage in the safety assessment process of the Korean spent nuclear fuel repository. In this process, the functional requirements that the database should provide, the database schema capable of implementing them, and simple examples are presented together. The objectives of this database design are flexible FEPs management, high integrity and consistency, and expandability for linking with the safety case database. The FEP data to be inputted into the database includes a list of major opened FEPs, including International FEPs from Nuclear Energy Agency, which were referred for PFEPs (Project-specific FEPs), and PFEPs applied to POSIVA's Olkiluoto repository. As an additional function, queries from the database are used to visually express the process of deriving scenarios through Rock Engineering System, a widely known scenario generation methodology.

Comprehensive identification and systematic classification of all features, events and processes (FEP) that influence on the performance of a high-level radioactive waste disposal system is essential for safety assessment. Nuclear energy agency (NEA) has been developing and updating the standardized generic FEP list, so-called NEA international FEP list, which may be used as the basis to develop project-specific FEP lists to reflect diverse system and site characteristics in different countries. On the basis, Finland and Sweden have recently got licenses to construct spent nuclear fuel deep disposal facilities. Also in Korea, timely construction of a high-level radioactive waste disposal facility is an urgent issue for stable operation of nuclear power plants. For this end, a FEP list that properly considers for system and site characteristics of Korean high-level radioactive waste disposal facility needs to be developed. In this study, the most recent NEA international FEP list published in 2019 was comprehensively reviewed with focus on the structure of the classification system and the physicochemical mechanisms associated with the key elements. The obtained results will be used for the comparative analysis of domestic and oversea project-specific FEP lists and for the development of a generic FEP list relevant to Korean high-level radioactive waste disposal system.