This paper is to study a technique to detect the real-time route aberrance on the passage route using bumper area of the ship domain theory. In order to evaluate the risk of route aberrance, a quarter line was created between the center line and the outer line, and a passage route with the image line outside the outer line was designed. It calculated the real-time route aberrance with the vessel bumper area to measure the risk level on the passage route. The route aberrance using overlap bumper area was simulated through three kinds of scenario vessel at the designed passage route. In this paper, we proposed Ratio to Aberrance Risk as one of the evaluation parameter to detect the route aberrance risk at each sector in the passage route and to give the evaluation criteria of 5 levels for seafarer’s navigation safety. The purpose of this work is to provide the information of the route aberrance to seafarer automatically, to make it possible to prevent the human errors of seafarer on the high risk aberrance route. As the real-time risk of route aberrance on the passage route is automatically evaluated, it was well thought that seafarer can have only a little workload in order to know the risk of route aberrance at early-time. Following the further development of this work, the techniques for detecting the real-time route aberrance will be able to use the unmanned vessel.

해상에서 발생하는 위기의 확률적인 평가결과는 확률(P=0.0~1.0)로 나타난다. 이러한 확률적인 위기평가결과는 위험한 정도를 쉽게 알기 위하여 일반적으로 평가의 기준이 되는 위기허용수준(Risk Acceptance Criteria, RAC)을 이용하여 지수(index)로 나타낸다. 현재 RAC은 3단계, 5단계, 7단계 등으로 구분하는데, 구분한 단계 수가 위기평가에 적합한지를 평가할 필요가 있음에도 불구하고 관련 연구가 전무한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 RAC의 단계 구분 수에 따른 민감도(Sensitivity)와 민감도의 분포특성을 이용하여 최적의 RAC 구분 단계 수를 정할 수 있는 평가기법을 제안하였다. 사전 연구결과로부터 획득한 확률적인 위기평가 데이터에 대해서 제안한 기법을 적용한 결과, 민감도가 10배 이내로 형성되는 최적의 RAC 구분 단계 수를 결정할 수 있었고, 이를 통해서 제안한 방법의 유효성을 확인하였다.

This paper describes the application method of bumper area defined in the ship domain theory and it is to identify risky sectors in VTS(Vessel Traffic Services) area. The final goal of this work is to develop early warning system providing the location information with high traffic risks in Mokpo VTS area and to prevent the human errors of VTS Officer(VTSO). The current goal of this paper is to find evaluation and detection method of risky sectors. The ratio between overlapped bumper area of each vessels and the summing area of a designated sector, Ratio to Evaluate Risk(RER) r is used as one of evaluation and detection parameter. The usability of overlapped bumper area is testified through three kinds of scenarios for various traffic situations. The marine traffic data used in the experiments is collected by AIS(Automatic Identification System) receiver and then compiled in the SQL(Structured Query Language) Server. Through the analysis of passing vessel‘s tracks within the boundary of Mokpo VTS area, the total of 11 sectors are identified as evaluation unit sector. As experiment results from risk evaluation for the 11 sectors, it is clearly known that the proposed method with RER r can provide the location information of high risky sectors which are need to keep traffic tracks of vessel movements and to maintain traffic monitoring by VTSO.