The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

During the period of every summer to early autumn seasons, ships have been wrecked or grounded from effect of a typhoon in the water areas around Korean Peninsula Typhoon Rusa killed more than 100 people in September 2002. Super Typhoon Maemi passed southeast of South Korea in September 12-13, 2003, with a strong gale blowing at a record 60 m/s and caused much ship groundings, collisions and sinkings over 3000 in dockyards, harbors and places of refuge. These are things that could have been prevented had there merely been prior warning. This study outlines the occurrence characteristics of maritime accidents caused by a typhoon in South Korea for the period from 1962 to 2002. The distribution of the accident records is also compared with the trajectories, winds, central pressures of typhoons, passed during the 1990-2003. It is shown that attack frequency of typhoon and number of marine accidents is the highest in August and the marine accidents due to typhoon have a close relation to the distribution of accumulated wind and pressure fields.