간행물
천문학회지 KCI 등재 SCOPUS Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
- 발행기관 한국천문학회
- 자료유형 학술지
- 간기 반년간
- ISSN 1225-4614 (Print)2288-890X (Online)
- 수록기간 1968 ~ 2024
- 주제분류 자연과학 > 천문학 자연과학 분류의 다른 간행물
- 십진분류KDC 440DDC 520
권호리스트/논문검색
제50권 제2호 (2017년 4월) 2건
1.
2017.04
구독 인증기관 무료, 개인회원 유료
The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.
4,000원
2.
2017.04
구독 인증기관 무료, 개인회원 유료
K.-S. Cho, K. Marubashi, R.-S. Kim, S.-H. Park, E.-K. Lim, S.-J. Kim, P. Kumar, V. Yurchyshyn, Y.-J. Moon, J.-O. Lee
We investigate two abnormal CME-Storm pairs that occurred on 2014 September 10 - 12 and 2015 March 15 - 17, respectively. The first one was a moderate geomagnetic storm (Dstmin -75 nT) driven by the X1.6 high speed flare-associated CME (1267 km s−1) in AR 12158 (N14E02) near solar disk center. The other was a very intense geomagnetic storm (Dstmin -223 nT) caused by a CME with moderate speed (719 km s−1) and associated with a filament eruption accompanied by a weak flare (C9.1) in AR 12297 (S17W38). Both CMEs have large direction parameters facing the Earth and southward magnetic field orientation in their solar source region. In this study, we inspect the structure of Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) at the Earth estimated by using the torus fitting technique assuming self-similar expansion. As results, we find that the moderate storm on 2014 September 12 was caused by small-scale southward magnetic fields in the sheath region ahead of the IFR. The Earth traversed the portion of the IFR where only the northward fields are observed. Meanwhile, in case of the 2015 March 17 storm, our IFR analysis revealed that the Earth passed the very portion where only the southward magnetic fields are observed throughout the passage. The resultant southward magnetic field with long- duration is the main cause of the intense storm. We suggest that 3D magnetic field geometry of an IFR at the IFR-Earth encounter is important and the strength of a geomagnetic storm is strongly affected by the relative location of the Earth with respect to the IFR structure.
4,200원
